; 1
Martin : Coming up on Asia Market Wrap, US President Bill Clinton
warns Tokyo it's latest 24 trillion yen stimulus package may not be
enough to get the economy back on it's feet.
以下是”亞洲市場匯報”新聞摘要：
美國總統柯林頓警告東京，它最新的２４兆日圓刺激方案
或許不足以使日本經濟重新站起

; 2
Meanwhile, "corporate Japan" is looking bleak.
同時，”日本公司”一片黯澹

; 3
It is earning season and profits at banks, car makers and telecoms
are all down.
現在是獲利季節，但銀行、汽車製造商與電訊的利潤全都下降

; 4
But Asian stock markets though, enjoy another day in the sun.
不過亞洲股市又是燦爛一天

; 5
Jakarta and Bangkok are shining the most.
雅加達與曼谷成績最輝煌

; 6
Thanks for staying with us here on Asia Market Wrap,
I'm Martin Soong.
歡迎收看”亞洲市場匯報”

; 7
Leading our business and financial news this Friday, US President,
Bill Clinton, issues a warning to Japan at the end of his 2 day visit
there.
今天的頭條財經新聞是：
美國總統柯林頓在結束兩天訪日時發出警告

; 8
Earlier Friday, Clinton held summit talks with Japanese Prime
Minister, Kaysa Obachi.
週五較早時，柯林頓與日本首相小淵舉行高峰會

; 9
At a press conference shortly afterwards, Clinton praised Tokyo's
efforts to try and kick-start it's recession hit economy but warned
that it's new 200 billion dollar stimulus package may not be enough to
drag the economy out of recession.
會後不久的記者會中柯林頓稱讚東京企圖啟動日本衰退經濟的努力
但警告說，新的２千億美元刺激方案或許不足以使經濟脫離衰退

; 10
reform legislation is quite good because it puts up public money which
financial institutions can get to protect depositors but only if they
re-cycle or if you will, write off their bad loans and clean up their
balance sheets so they can start to loan money again."
改革法案挺好的，因為釋出的公共資金能讓金融機構保護存款人
但前提是它們必須重整，或者說註銷壞帳和平衡損益
這樣一來它們才能重新放貸

; 11
So I think if this legislation is vigorously implemented, it will be
a big plus.
所以，我認為如果切實執行這些法案的話，會更好

; 12
On the stimulus package, I think it is quite good, whether it will be
enough or not I do not know simply because the Prime Minister has had
to change a policy that was not stimulating the economy and sometimes
when you have to turn a country around, it takes more than you think
in the beginning.
至於刺激方案方面，我覺得挺好的
至於總額到底夠不夠的問題，我個人就不曉得了
因為首相必須要修改那些無法再刺激經濟的政策
有時，當您決定要挽救一個國家時，起步總是艱難的

; 13
Martin : Bill Clinton has left Japan since for the next stop on his
truncated Asian tour, that is, South Korea.
柯林頓現已離開日本前往南韓作兩天訪問

; 14
Well Japan is unlikely to adopt any more stimulus spending measures
soon despite that US pressure.
儘管有美國的壓力，但日本近來不太可能推出更多的刺激消費措施

; 15
That's the word from the country's top economic planner.
這是日本經濟企劃廳高層說的

; 16
Economic Planning Agency Director General, Taichi Saikia says Japan
will definitely post positive growth next year after the latest
package and he says a fourth supplementary budget is in his words,
"hard to consider at this point."
經企廳長官界屋太一說，實施最新方案後
日本明年必定會正增長，他也說，目前很難考慮第四次追加預算

; 17
Most economists doubt Japan's economy will grow next year, despite
the government's latest stimulus package unveiled earlier this week.
大部份經濟學家懷疑日本經濟明年能夠增長
雖然政府本週稍早宣佈了１９４０億美元刺激方案

; 18
Well Japan's Finance Minister says no to a cut in the
sales tax.
日本藏相拒絕調降銷費稅

; 19
Keichi Miazoua says Tokyo has no plans to lower the 5%
consumption tax in the immediate future.
宮澤喜一說，東京沒有計畫在立即的未來調降現行的５％消費稅

; 20
His comments came shortly after visiting US Deputy Treasury
Secretary, Lawrence Summers, urged Tokyo to take, in his words, "truly
bold policies to revive it's economy."
他的評論緊接著來訪的美國副商務部長桑默斯敦促東京採取他所說的
”真正大膽的政策以復甦經濟”

; 21
Summers said changes to the sales tax would be desirable, but did not
elaborate.
桑默斯說，調整消費稅將是好事，但是沒有詳談

; 22
Well for more on Japan's efforts and revitalising it's
economy, time to talk to Brian Lippey, who joins us as our guest-host
today.
為了進一步了解日本復甦其經濟的努力
我們將訪談今天共同主持人

; 23
Brian is Managing Director at Tokai Asia in Hong Kong and joins us
from our studios there.
他是亞洲東海駐港董事總經理

; 24
Now Brian, nice to have you with us.
您好，謝謝您接受訪談

; 25
Now Clinton saying 24 trillion yen, certainly not
enough to dig Japan out of recession.
柯林頓說２４兆日圓當然不足以使日本脫離衰退

; 26
The EPA Japan says basically, well too bad, that's about all we can or
want to cough up at this stage.
日本經企廳基本上說，太糟了，我們只能出這麼多

; 27
Sounds like a stand off?
聽起來好像是疏遠了，不是嗎？

; 28
Brian : Well Martin, it's important to realise what's happening.
Obviously both parties playing to a large degree, to their own
domestic political constituencies.
重要的是認知發生了什麼事，雙方顯然主要是表演給國內的政治勢力看

; 29
In the US, we're seeing signs of increasing protectionist pressure.
我們看見美國國內保護主義壓力日增

; 30
Steel groups obviously expressing their concern about Japanese dumping
and with the US merchandise trade deficit set to expand to about 300
billion US dollars next year, it's understandable that Clinton is
going to be making this point.
鋼鐵業明顯關切日本傾銷，美國明年貿易逆差據稱接近三千億美元
我們可以瞭解柯林頓會提出那一點

; 31
But beyond that, obviously so much more needs to be done in terms of
the actual restructuring and deregulation of the economy, it's natural
that Clinton would be making these points.
但除些之外，明顯需要作更多事以解除管制以及重整經濟
柯林頓自然會談這些事

; 32
Martin : Okay, let's talk about taxes if we could, it seems to have
become a very controversial issue over the last few days or so.
讓我們談談稅的事情，過去幾天似乎已成為很具爭議性的事

; 33
Just earlier today, we heard talk that it is not 6 trillion that
Tokyo's talking about, but 10.
今天稍早，我們聽到的不是東京談的６兆日圓，而是１０兆日圓

; 34
I mean it's not very clear, what have you heard or what do you
understand?
我是指消息不很清楚，您有聽說什麼嗎？您又瞭解了什麼呢？

; 35
Brian : Well again, this is a highly politicised processes.
這是高度政治化的過程

; 36
Our sense is that these are still proposals, nothing has been
finalised, this is all subject to debate and final approval in the
diet.
我們的感覺是這些仍是提議，沒有任何確定的事
這是仍待國會辯論以及最後核准的事

; 37
Similarly, the talk about a cut in the consumption tax which has been
I guess one of the more controversial aspects of this package, is
likely to be postponed until the summer or possibly the fall of next
year before the LDP presidential elections.
同樣的，調降消費稅的說法，我猜那是這個方案裡比較有爭議的部份
可能延後到明年夏或秋季自民黨選出新黨魁之前

; 38
So it's very important to view what's happening right now within the
context of the domestic political priorities.
所以重要的是以國內政治的需求看待目前發生的事

; 39
Martin : Okay, fair enough, but I mean this whole proposal or idea of
cutting Japan's national sales tax from 5% now down to 3% or perhaps
less.
好的，有道理，但將日本目前５％消費稅調降到３％或更少的整個提議

; 40
I mean really, how much would that help?
我是指…那究竟有多大幫助？

; 41
Brian : Well it's hard to come up with a hard and fast impact on the
economy.
那很難…很難對經濟發生迅速有力的影響

; 42
The problem is consumer confidence remains so low that some portion or
all of the savings in consumption tax may actually go into savings and
not filter through the economy.
問題是消費者信心仍太低
所以消費稅省下的部份或者全部的錢可能存起來，而不是滲透到經濟裡

; 43
You know all this really ultimately goes back to the key issue of
restructuring corporate Japan, clearing the non-performing loans,
dealing with the bad debt problem with the banks and deregulating the
broader economy.
這些最終回到關鍵問題：重整公司、註銷不良貸款
處理銀行的壞債問題以及解除較廣的經濟管制

; 44
Martin : Okay, but most immediately, I mean in the real economy,
consumption making more than half of GDP, now that this whole idea or
the possibility that the consumption tax could go down is floating in
the air, do you think that that is going to make people wait and spend
even less in anticipation of it going down sometime later?
好吧，但眼前的實質經濟，消費佔ＧＤＰ一半以上
消費稅可能調降的想法或者可能性四處傳播
您認為這是否會使人因為期待消費稅調降而等待以後再消費？

; 45
Brian : Well that's the point.
那就是重點

; 46
Right now consumer confidence is quite low, households feel that the
prospect of restructuring will lead to higher unemployment, job cuts
etc.
目前消費者信心很低一般家庭擔憂重整會導致更高失業率、裁員等等

; 47
So it's not necessarily given that a cut in the consumption tax will
lead to the hoped for boost in consumption.
所以，調降消費稅未必造成所希望的促進消費

; 48
Martin : Alright Brian, we will have to wrap up there for now, but we
will come back to you in just a second.
好的，我們必須告一段落，稍後回來繼續再談

; 49
Another top story today, it is earning season for Japan's top banks
and the latest report numbers Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi.
今天另一則頭條新聞：現在是日本銀行的獲利季節
最近公佈數字的是東京三菱銀行

; 50
BTM swung back into the black in the 6 months to September, it's group
pre-tax profits jumping to 72.4 billion yen, that's equivalent of
about US$532 million, that's compared to a loss of 860 billion yen, in
the same period a year ago.
ＢＴＭ九月份為止的半年期間恢復獲利
該集團稅前獲利躍昇到７２４億日圓，相當於５億３千２百萬美元
去年同期則虧損８６００億日圓

; 51
BTM says the results include a 300 billion yen bad debt write-off.
ＢＴＭ說數字包括註銷３千億日圓壞債

; 52
For the full year to March, the bank is forecasting a pre-tax profit
of 70 billion yen.
該行預計到明年三月的全年稅前獲利７百億日圓

; 53
Meanwhile, BTM says it will issue new shares to strengthen it's
capital base, BTM plans to raise 300 billion yen via the issue.
於此同時，ＢＴＭ表示，為了強化基本額，它將發行新服
ＢＴＭ希望透過這次發行股票籌措３０００億日圓

; 54
The new shares will be allocated to members of BTM's group.
新股將配置到ＢＴＭ集團裡的成員公司

; 55
And Sakura Bank meanwhile suffers a major set back.
櫻花銀行獲利則劇降

; 56
It's shares were suspended briefly Friday after Toyota Motors, a key
business ally, said it would not contribute to a lifeline injection of
cash into the bank.
櫻花銀行的主要企業盟友豐田汽車表示，它不會挹注大筆資金進入該銀行後
櫻花銀行股票週五被勒令暫停止交易

; 57
Like Bank Tokyo-Mitsubishi, Sakura is planning a share issue to build
up it's capital base.
跟東京三菱銀行一樣的是，櫻花銀行也計劃發行新股強化資本額

; 58
It had originally hoped to raise 350 billion yen through the issue but
Sakura was forced to adjust that figure to just 86 billion yen after
Toyota withdrew from the share placement.
該銀行原本希望能透過發行新股籌措３５００日圓
但豐田汽車退出新股配置後，櫻花銀行就被迫將原來目標
調整成８６０億日圓

; 59
Sakura Bank also intends to apply for up to 600 billion yen in public
money to build up it's capital base.
櫻花銀行也打算申請挹注６０００日圓公共資金以強化資本額

; 60
Meanwhile, Sakura reported interim pre-tax profits of 25.2 billion yen
or up 17.75 billion yen from a year ago.
於此同時，櫻花銀行提列的暫定稅前獲利是２５２億日圓
跟一年前比較，上揚了１７７．５日圓

; 61
Right after the break, a shock to the system for Singapore's economy,
as October exports come in well below what the market was looking for.
廣告後我們將報導：新加坡經濟體系大震憾
十月份的出口值比市場預測的還差

; 62
We'll have details when we come back.
廣告後我們會有詳盡的報導

; 63
Stay with us.
請不要走開

; 64
Welcome back, thanks for staying with us on Asia Market Wrap.
歡迎繼續收看”亞洲市場匯報”

; 65
Well Singapore's non-oil exports tumbled in October, they fell almost
5% in nominal terms from a year ago, down to S$8 billion.
新加坡１０月份非石油出口大幅下滑
與一年前相比，下滑達５％，成為８０億新元

; 66
The contraction came as a surprise.
出口值萎縮令人意外

; 67
Analysts were expecting a small rise after the 1.7% gain the month
before.
分析師預期會微幅成長，因為上個月成長１．７％

; 68
The reason for the drop last month, falling demand from the US.
上個月下滑的原因包括：美國需求減少

; 69
Electronics exports to the US down for the second month in a row and
separately, Singapore also announced that exports of oil plunged more
than 20% in October due to depressed oil prices and also weak regional
demand.
對美輸出電子產品連續第二個月下挫
此外，新加坡同時預估１０月份石油類出口將大幅下滑２０％
原因是石油價格偏低及亞洲需求不振

; 70
Well joining us for a closer look at those numbers is
Jimmy Koh, Regional Economist at I.D.E.A. here in Singapore.
和我進一步探討這些數字的是獅城ＩＤＥＡ的經濟專家

; 71
Jimmy, nice to have you with us.
謝謝您來上節目

; 72
How worrying is this drop in October trade when most people were
expecting a slight what, 1% rise?
１０月貿易數字下滑有多令人擔心呢？大家還以為會微升１％

; 73
Jimmy : I mean to be frank, it's quite difficult to forecast the
non-oil exports because it's extremely volatile but if you look at the
overall trend, it's a down and for the time being, the main export
market is actually the US and Europe.
老實說，要專門探討非石油類出口很難，因為它的變數很大
但整體的趨勢是呈現下跌的，目前，主要的出口市場是美國和歐洲

; 74
I mean 44% of Singapore's exports goes into this region and has been
collapsing like 15%-30% on annum.
新加坡４４％出口對準歐美，現在衰退了１５％至３０％

; 75
So the thing is, that into Q1 next year, the impact of Asia crisis
hitting Latin America is likely to bite into US and Europe,
respectively.
所以，到明年第一季為止，亞洲危機，對拉丁美洲和東歐造成的影響
很可能會影響到美國和歐陸

; 76
The thing is, that what is going to happen to Asia's exports including
Singapore, if the US economy including Europe, takes a down turn next
year.
但問題是，如果美國和歐洲經濟明年下滑的話
對亞洲出口國，包括新加坡不知道影響會有多大

; 77
Martin : Okay, now this is an interesting point because we mentioned
demand in the US seems to be slowing down as against the slowing down
of exports in electronics from Singapore to the US.
這點相當有意思，因為剛剛提到，美國需求在減緩
新加坡對美國的電子產品出口也因此減少

; 78
This is at a time of year when it should be picking up because of
Christmas demand, right?
每年此時，出口應該增加，因為聖誕節的需求，不是嗎？

; 79
Jimmy : Well, if you look at past year Christmas demands on a
year-on-year basis, we shouldn't have much changes, but overall trend
is definitely worrying.
如果按照每年聖誕節需求即會增加來看
今年應該改變不大，但整體的趨勢是憂慮的

; 80
I mean no doubt that you have FED policy makers kept affirming that
the US domestic market is actually domestically driven 85% but the
fact of the matter is that Asia's crisis has hurt US companies
earnings and if you look at the Dow now and the Dow 1 year ago,
although around the same levels, the Dow is definitely more
over-valued than previously.
固然聯儲局政策決策者不斷說，美國經濟８５％是屬於國內導向
但事實上，亞洲危機已損及美國公司的獲利
如果拿現在的道瓊指數和一年前來相看
雖然水位都差不多，但現在的價值顯然比去年高估許多

; 81
So you're probably going to see a down turn in the Dow, probably
towards about 7.5, the negative will effect upon the US economy and
will bite into Asia's exports.
所以道瓊指數可能會下跌到７５００
美國經濟的不振，一定會影響到亞洲出口

; 82
Martin : Okay, so even less demand from there.
好吧，如果需求減少的話

; 83
I mean what about the Sing dollar?
新加坡元的走勢會怎樣？

; 84
Most people seem to think that the government is willing to let it
depreciate further, will that not help?
大多數人似乎認為，新國政府願意讓新元進一步貶值，有幫助嗎？

; 85
Jimmy : Well I don't think that the government are willing to
depreciate it because if you look at it, any sign of the government's
intention to allow the Sing dollar to depreciate, will create capital
to fly out of Singapore and that's not needed in this current
environment.
我不認為新國政府願意讓新元貶值
因為如果有任何跡象顯示政府有意讓新元貶值
都會造成資本出走，目前的環境下最不希望如此

; 86
So that's why they're taking on the lead in cost cutting measures.
所以新國才會主動推動降低成本措施

; 87
Next Monday, Tuesday, we'll see more details coming out.
細節會在下週一、週二公佈

; 88
15% overall reduction in business costs but I don't know whether it's
going to be sufficient or not.
企業成本將削減１５％，這樣做夠不夠，我不確定

; 89
Martin : Okay, we'll have to wait and see.
好吧，只有靜觀其變了

; 90
Jimmy, thanks for joining us today, nice to talk to you.
謝謝您接受訪問

; 91
Jimmy : You're welcome.
不客氣

; 92
Martin : Jimmy Koh, I.D.E.A. here in our Singapore studios.
以上是ＩＤＥＡ經濟專家在獅城接受本台訪問

; 93
Well Asian stock markets riding high at the end of the trading week.
亞洲股市於本週收盤前上漲

; 94
Taipei, Manila and Jakarta all trading at levels not seen in several
months.
台北、馬尼拉與雅加達皆收在數月以來罕見的水平

; 95
Seoul's composite index seeing it's biggest ever daily trading volume
Friday, 242 million shares changing hands.
南韓綜合指數週五創下單日成交量新高，達２億４千２百萬股

; 96
The index is having a 7 month high in fact, finishing the Friday
session nearly 3% ahead.
指數創下７個月新高，今天漲幅達３％

; 97
Also, let's take a look at Tokyo now.
再來看看東京股市

; 98
The Nikkei surging 3% Friday, the retail and real estate stocks,
property stocks leading winners.
日經指數週五飆漲３％，零售與房地產股是大贏家

; 99
Over in Hong Kong, late profit taking wiping out all of that market's
early gains.
香港尾盤獲利了結賣壓，折損了早盤漲勢

; 100
After trading closed, the Hong Kong Association of Banks cut deposit
rates by 25 basis points, that move was widely expected though.
收盤後，香港銀行協會調降儲蓄率達１碼，但此舉早在預料中

; 101
Here in Singapore, worse than expected trade numbers that we talked
about just a minute ago with Jimmy Koh, did not put a damper on the
market.
剛剛才提到的，未如預期的貿易數字並未挫低新加坡股市

; 102
The Straits Times Index managing nearly a 2.5% gain.
海峽時報指數仍上漲近２．５％

; 103
In Kuala Lumpur, the market lifted by news that Dona Harta, the
country's bad debt bank, the institution that is charged with taking
over bad loans, plans to issue bonds worth 1 billion Ringgit.
大馬股市受國民資產管理公司，即負責接手壞債的機構消息的影響上漲
該公司計畫發行價值１０億零吉的公司債

; 104
And further north in Thailand, Bangkok tacking on nearly 4% since
Friday; construction and bank stocks leading the way.
泰國股市週五上漲近４％，營建及銀行股帶頭上攻

; 105
In Jakarta, a late burst of energy sending the composite index above
4000 for the first time in 3 months.
雅加達股市晚盤買氣湧現，綜合指數創３個月來最高

; 106
And in Manila, the 30 share index there jumping 1.25% to it's highest
in 4 months.
馬尼拉股市，３０股指數上漲１．２５％，創４個月來最高

; 107
Finally Taipei rallying to yet another 3 month high, tech stocks
including Acer and ASC the main movers.
台北股市創３個月來新高，科技股宏諅、華碩是主要推手

; 108
And from stocks to foreign currencies.
至於外匯市場方面

; 109
Hope that Japan will cut it's 5% national sales tax as lending support
to the yen.
日本將調降５％銷費稅的預期對日圓形成支撐

; 110
US Deputy Commerce Secretary, Lawrence Summers earlier Friday urged
Japanese policy makers to consider a review of the sales tax.
美國副商務部長桑默斯週五稍早呼籲日本當局考慮檢討銷費稅

; 111
The yen losing a bit of steam though, trading at 120.25.
但日圓稍有回貶，價位為１２０．２５

; 112
For his take on the yen, let's talk to Tom Holland and
currency specialist at Dow Jones News Wires here in Singapore.
現在就請來賓談日圓，他是獅城道瓊社匯市專家

; 113
Tom, what's up?
有何新消息？

; 114
Tom : Well we've seen very choppy trading in the yen today actually
Martin with as you say, Mezanoa taking some of the steam out of the
yen's rally.
今天日圓交易十分活絡，就像您所說的，桑默斯減弱了日圓在尾盤的氣勢

; 115
The underlying trend does seem to be stronger for the yen however and
in fact much of the weakness that we've seen coming back into the
Japanese market is really the conservatism of the Japanese investors,
who are somewhat reluctant to believe the good news about the Japanese
economy.
但是日圓的潛力似乎強些，我們看到日本市場的弱點其實是日本投資者的保守
他們不太願意相信日本經濟的好消息

; 116
That really, recovery may just be on the cards if the government can
implement the measures it has in mind.
復甦也許就在眼前，只要政府能夠實行計畫好的措施

; 117
Martin : Okay, so where to from here, very cautious trade?
所以交易很謹慎嗎？

; 118
Tom : Cautious trading in the yen but certainly a bullish aspect on
the Asian regional currencies.
日圓的交易很謹慎，但亞洲貨幣則後勢看好

; 119
Calling around the traders, the analysts, the economists, people are
really looking on the bright side as far as the regional markets go,
we've seen a big rally in the stock markets and most people are
looking for a strengthening of between another, 3%, 5%, towards the
end of the year, for the regionals.
分析家與經濟學家都表示，亞洲市場的投資者已經開始感到樂觀
今天股票市場都大漲，大家都期望亞洲市場能堅守３％至５％直到今年底

; 120
Martin : Okay, interesting.
這一點真有趣

; 121
One quick last one, let's go off on a slight tangent here.
最後一個問題，稍微換個話題好了

; 122
We were talking to an analyst a few days ago who said that in 1999,
the economies to keep an eye on would be Indonesia as well the
Philippines in terms of the possibility of them introducing capital
controls.
幾天前我們聽分析家表示，９９年經濟學家將注意印尼與菲律賓
因為它們可能採取資金管制

; 123
Is that something that you're hearing as well?
您也聽說這個消息嗎？

; 124
Tom : Well the Philippine Central Bank has repeatedly denied that it
has plans to impose stricter controls on it's currency.
菲律賓央行一直否認他們計畫加緊貨幣的管制

; 125
It does have some in place in the moment and equally the Indonesians
have denied that they plan any controls.
目前他們是有採取一些措施，印尼也同樣否認將採取管制

; 126
Certainly if the currencies do continue to strengthen, there's some
speculation that it may become attractive for Indonesia to try and
lock in the rate, should the Rupiah reach levels of around 6000 to the
US dollar.
如果貨幣能夠繼續守強，印尼可能會緊釘匯率，如果盾升值到六千兌一美元

; 127
Martin : Alright Tom, we'll have to wrap up there, nice to talk to
you, thanks for keeping an eye on FX for us.
謝謝您幫我們分析匯市走勢

; 128
Tom Holland, Dow Jones News Wires here in Singapore.
以上來賓是新加坡道瓊社貨幣專家

; 129
And up next on Asia Market Wrap, what's hot and what's not.
接下來”亞洲市場匯報”將報導：什麼熱門？什麼不熱門？

; 130
A wrap up in stocks in the news, we talk to CNBC Asia's Grace Pye,
when we come back.
本台記者將報導股市新聞，稍候請繼續收看

; 131
Welcome back, thanks for staying with us on Asia Market Wrap.
歡迎繼續收看”亞洲市場匯報”

; 132
Well for a closer look at stocks making news today, let's talk to
CNBC's resident market watcher, Grace Pye.
更進一步觀察今天的股市，我們請到本台股市觀察家報導

; 133
Grace, I understand that PAL, Philippine Airlines, just released 6
month numbers, what do they look like?
聽說菲律賓航空今天公佈了上半年的數據，情況如何？

; 134
Grace : Well Martin, they're looking rather dismal actually.
情況不太樂觀

; 135
Philippine Airlines losses nearly tripled to $153 million in the 6
months to September, that's compared to a net loss of $53.5 million a
year ago.
三月到九月間，菲航的虧損幾乎增加三倍
達一億五千三百萬美元
去年同期虧損則是五千三百五十萬

; 136
Revenues fell 33% with earnings from passenger fares falling 36% to 9
billion Pesos.
營收減少了３３％，機務營收減少了３６％，達九百萬披索

; 137
If you recall now, the carrier was crippled by a 22 day pilot strike
in May which led to the airline suspending payment on more than $2
billion in debt.
如果各位還記得，五月間菲航被飛行員罷工癱瘓了二十二天
使菲航暫停給付超過二十億美元的貸款

; 138
The carrier was brought back from the brink of closing down earlier
this year after President Joseph Estrada mediated a compromise between
management and staff over pay.
今年稍早菲航瀕臨關閉，後來艾斯瑞達總統居間協調了勞資雙方的薪資問題

; 139
PAL is now in advance talks with Cathay Pacific which may end up
taking over management of PAL in addition to taking a stake in the
Philippine carrier, Martin.
菲航目前正與國泰航空商談
國泰航空也許會接手菲航的管理權及部份股權

; 140
Martin : Thanks Grace.
謝謝

; 141
Well the Japanese government is to sell off a 4th tranch of telecom
giant NTT.
日本政府準備賣掉
通訊業巨人日本電報與電話公司四分之一的股份

; 142
The Finance Ministry says up to a million shares will be offered
before the end of this year.
大藏省表示年底前會釋出一百萬股

; 143
Share price will be fixed in mid- December.
十二月中將會鎖定股價

; 144
The Finance Ministry owns 65.4% of the world's largest telecom
company.
日本大藏省擁有這家世界最大通話公司６５．４％的股份

; 145
Meanwhile, NTT released it's half-year numbers after the market closed
Friday and it was not a pretty picture.
於此同時，日本電報與電話公司週五市收市後公佈了上半年的業績
情況很不理想

; 146
In the 6 months to September, parent net profits down 54% from a year
ago to US$525 million.
截至九月的半年期間
母公司淨利比去年下降了５４％，達五億兩千五百萬美元

; 147
Well a slump in earnings for Japan's Toyota Motors as well.
日本豐田汽車獲利也下降

; 148
In the six months to September, interim net profits fell 20% from a
year ago to US$1.4 billion, pre-tax profits declined nearly 9% to
US$3.4 billion.
截至九月的半年期間，暫定淨利比去年降低了２０％，達十四億美元
稅前獲利下降將近９％，達三十四億美元

; 149
Behind the fall, a protracted slump in the domestic car market.
原因是國內汽車市場的長期衰退

; 150
Japan's Nikko Securities announces plans to close or slim down most of
it's overseas branches.
日本日興證券宣佈將要關閉或精簡海外的分行

; 151
Nikko says it will cut overseas assets by 2.5 trillion yen and slash
2,000 jobs.
日興證券說，他們要削減海外資產達兩兆五千億日圓
同時裁減兩千名員工

; 152
It will then concentrate on domestic retail operations.
以後他們將專心於國內的零售市場

; 153
The changes will affect 11 of it's 14 subsidiaries by the end of this
year.
這項改變到了年底時將影響到他們海外十四個分行中的十一個

; 154
Nikko is expected to report an extraordinary loss of about 100
billion yen for the current financial year.
預計日興證券將公佈本會計年度達一千億日圓的驚人虧損

; 155
Indonesia's privatisation programme is picking up speed.
印尼加速了企業民營化計畫

; 156
Jakarta says it intends to sell down it's stake to 51% in two listed
mining companies, to strategic partners or on the stock market.
雅加達表示將把兩家礦業公司５１％的股權
賣給策略聯盟或釋出股票市場

; 157
The two companies are Aneka Tambung and Tambung Teema.
這兩家公司是阿尼卡坦邦公司以及坦蓬提馬公司（音）

; 158
Under the plan, state-owned coal miner, Bukit Asam may also be merged
into those two companies.
根據計畫，國營的武吉阿桑煤礦公司（音）也會合併入那兩家公司

; 159
Jakarta intends to raise $1.5 billion through the sale of 12 state
companies including market bell weather, P.T. Telekom.
雅加達預備賣掉包括市場大老ＰＴ電話公司在內的十二家國營公司
目的是籌措十五億美元

; 160
Well Moodies investor service downgrades the ratings of 10 Taiwanese
banks.
穆迪債信評級公司調降了台灣十家銀行的等級

; 161
The rating agency sited growing concern over the structural weakness
in that island's banking sector.
該評級公司注意到台灣銀行界的結構性缺失造成民眾擔心

; 162
It says those weaknesses have been magnified by the regional economic
crisis.
該評級公司說，目前的經濟危機更強調出銀行界的缺失

; 163
Moodies says it was also concerned about increasingly highly leveraged
bank customers.
穆迪說，它也關切越來越多的高度槓桿客戶出現

; 164
It says they are now more vulnerable to any slow down in Taiwan's
economy.
它說，台灣經濟如果一趨緩，這些銀行就深受影響

; 165
The 10 down graded banks are : Chang Hwa Bank, Chinatrust Commercial
Bank, Hua Nan Commercial Bank, First Commercial Bank, Bank of Taiwan,
Chiao Tung Bank, Bank Sinopac, United World Chinese Commercial Bank,
International Commercial Bank of China and E. Sun Bank.
這十家降等的銀行是：彰化銀行、中國信託商業銀行、華南商業銀行
第一銀行商業銀行、臺灣銀行、交通銀行、華信銀行、世華商業銀行
中國國際商業銀行以及玉山銀行

; 166
There will be a quiz after this.
等一下考您記不記得

; 167
For his take on Taiwan, let's go back to Brian Lippey of Tokai Asia in
our Hong Kong studios.
為了更進一步了解台灣狀況，我們再訪談今天共同主持人

; 168
Brian, thanks for staying with us.
謝謝您再次接受我們的訪談

; 169
What do you make of this Moodies downgrade?
您對於穆迪的這波降級行動有什麼看法？

; 170
Brian : Well Martin, it's symptomatic of the broader problems that
financial institutions around the region are experiencing.
實際上那更反應了區域內金融機構都碰到的問題

; 171
Bank balance sheets have obviously been under severe pressure and even
in Taiwan which is an economy that's actually resembled more of the US
than the rest of Asia, it's had a very strong third quarter for
example, is not immune to these regional pressures.
銀行收支平衡壓力大
就算在台灣，一般來說跟亞洲其它國家相較，比較像美國的情形
第三季經濟表現相當好，但面對區域壓力，也不能完全免疫

; 172
And many of the broader themes that we've seen around the region
dealing with non-performing loans, the need for greater transparency,
corporate governance etc. and adherence to international capital
ratios, are going to become increasingly important issues there.
整個區域目前出現的情況：
解決壞帳問題、作業更透明、公司管理和監守國際資金比率等問題
對台灣來說會愈來愈重要

; 173
I think that's probably been reflected in the downgrade today.
我認為這些都可能是穆迪今天調降評等的原因

; 174
Martin : Okay, but are we talking about the problem being Taiwan bank
exposure to the Island's own companies or to the rest of Asia?
好的，但這裡的重點是台灣銀行對本地公司的放貸問題呢
還是對亞洲地區公司放貸的問題？

; 175
Brian : It's probably a combination of the two.
可能兩者都有

; 176
Some of the weaker names in Taipei are obviously affected by the
inventory accumulation that we've seen, particularly in
semi-conductors and electronics and part of it is due to regional
exposures.
有些表現較差的公司好像跟庫存積壓有關
尤其是跟半導體及電子業有關的公司
部份原因是跟本區域問題有關

; 177
Martin : Okay, so we are talking about non-performing loans and PL's
arising.
所以，我們談的是壞帳上揚問題嘍？

; 178
Any idea of what kind of levels we could be looking at?
您知道幅度有多大嗎？

; 179
Brian : I can't speak to exact levels but would say that this just
reflects this broader theme that we're seeing around the region, the
need to focus in on the core of the problem and that is disposing of
the bad debt problem, putting in place the institutions to deal with
it in a systematic and thorough fashion and having the legal and
accounting standards and framework to promote transparency and the
expedient resolution of the problem.
我不曉得切實的數據，但總跟亞洲整體問題有關
得專注於問題的核心，也就是解決壞帳
讓金融機構有系統的澈底解決問題
透過法律，會計制度促使金融機構作業更透明，加速解決問題

; 180
Martin : Okay, are those things in place yet or do you see the
government making positive steps in that direction?
好吧，您說的他們在做了嗎？
政府在這方面有採取什麼積極措施嗎？

; 181
Brian : This is banking crisis do not turn on a dime and they take a
long time to resolve themselves and the work out process is a
protracted one.
這些銀行危機非一朝一夕可解決者，要花長時間才能解決
處理的步驟也會拖上一陣子

; 182
Progress is being made around the region but at a very slow pace, so
this is not a quick fix, this is going to be a long protracted
process.
區域出現了一些進展，但是進度很慢
所以，這可急不得，得花長時間
慢慢才能解決這些問題

; 183
Martin : Okay, do you have a take on this 200 million Taiwan dollar
emergency stabilisation fund that Taiwan kicked in with, what, was it
late last week or so?
好吧，上星期台灣的２億新台幣緊急股市安定基金有沒有作用？

; 184
Brian : I haven't really been following that closely but again, it
represents a series of steps that governments across the region have
taken to deal with structural problems.
我沒太注意到這個部份，不過，這也是區域內所有政府
所採取的一系列解決結構性問題步驟的一部分

; 185
We've gone through I think 3 distinct phases, whether it's Taiwan or
South East Asia or Japan or Korea.
我們可以看出三個不同的階段
不論是台灣、東南亞、日本以及南韓都一樣

; 186
This phase of denial, this phase of gradual recognition of the scope
and magnitude of the problem and now a series of steps designed to
address the problem effectively and government bale out funds are part
of the process.
一開始否認，接著慢慢承認問題有多大
現在推出一系列解決方案，希望能有效解決問題
政府紓困是其中一部分

; 187
Martin : Okay Brian, thanks for talking to us, we'll come back in just
a second.
謝謝您，我們稍後再談

; 188
Well it's time now to say good-bye to our US viewers, good morning and
also thank you for watching.
現在要對美國觀眾說再見、早安，而且謝謝您收看

; 189
But for our viewers here in Asia, stay with us, we'll have more for
you when we come back.
亞洲地區觀眾請別走開，廣告後我們還有更多報導

; 190
Well signs out of Indonesia that it's economy may have hit bottom.
印尼經濟出現觸底跡象

; 191
The Indonesian Rupiah hovering around 7500 all week, inflation
appears to be in check and interest rates are falling.
一週以來印尼盾一直盤旋在７５００
通貨膨脹不但受到控制，利率也呈下滑局勢

; 192
CNBC Asia Stuart Pallister met up with Indonesian Senior Economics
Minister, Ginandjar Kartasasmita and started by asking him if the
Indonesian economy has seen the worst.
本台記者採訪到了印尼經濟部長
記者首先問到，印尼經濟最糟時刻是否已過


; 193
Minister : Yes, I do think so.
是的，我是這麼認為的

; 194
I think, and this has been supported also by the observations of
people who are working with us from the international financial
institutions, that we have seen the bottom of the economic abyss and
now we have started to recover.
跟我們一起共事的國際金融機構某些人也支持這一點
也就是說，我們的經濟已經觸底，同時已經開始復甦

; 195
Stuart : This time next year, how do you see the economy looking?
您認為明年此刻經濟前景如何？

; 196
Minister : I think we will be in a much better situation next year,
with the second semester we forecast already a modest growth, a
positive growth by the second semester of next year.
我覺得明年的經濟會更好，預測第二季時會溫和增長
明年第二季時會出現正成長

; 197
Stuart : Are you saying it will still take a number of years before
there's any real growth?
您是指實質成長還得等上幾年嗎？

; 198
Minister : Well I think we need another 2/3 years after that to really
see as you say a real growth in a sustainable manner, yes.
是的，我覺得我們還需要兩到三年
才會看到您所謂的實質持續性增長

; 199
Stuart : And it will take another 2/3 years for the restructuring of
the banking sector?
重整銀行也還需要兩、三年嗎？

; 200
Minister : Yes that will be about it.
是的，差不多這樣

; 201
Stuart : Why do you think it will take so long to sort things out?
為什麼需要這麼久？

; 202
Minister : Because our banking system is really in a bad shape now,
even with 4% cost, there's not so many banks that can really qualify
for that.
因為我們的銀行體系目前狀況很糟
沒有太多銀行的體質是健康的

; 203
Stuart : But even if things are moving on the economic front though,
there's always the concern there's going to be political instability
and further unrest.
儘管經濟面已有改善，但還是會有人擔心政治不穩和進一步的社會不安

; 204
Minister : People are watching the next parliamentary elections that
are schedulled to be held in early June, that it is democratically
conducted and fair play and transparent and whether there is violence
in the campaign for instance.
大家都在觀察將於六月初舉行的國會選舉
不管過程中會不會出現暴力事件
它還會是一個民主的、公平的和透明的選舉

; 205
If we can have peaceful elections and it can be construed as a real
process of democracy, I think really we will pass another test and
then the final test will be the presidential election of course.
如果選舉過程和平，而且完全符合民主程序
那麼我會認為我們又渡過了另一個考驗
最後一個考驗就是總統選舉

; 206
Stuart : So what you seem to be saying is that investors will be
putting decisions on hold until there are signs of stability?
您的意思是指，投資人會想等到出現穩定跡象才會作出決定？

; 207
Minister : I'm not saying that because some investors have already
been coming to Indonesia.
不是，因為某些投資人已經進場投資

; 208
We received fund managers as you know, 2/3 weeks ago, they're coming
to Indonesia and they're presenting investments of 1.7 trillion
dollars, they're looking into our situation.
誠如您知道的，兩、三週前就有基金經理人進場
他們不但進場，而且還挾帶了１．７兆的資金
他們看好我們的後勢

; 209
But what I'm saying is that people are looking into the political
situation more than the economic situation in Indonesia, which of
course is understandable.
但我的意思是指，一般人會比較注意印尼的政治狀況
當然，這是可以理解的

; 210
Stuart : But political stability is key?
但是，政治穩定不就是關鍵嗎？

; 211
Minister : Political stability is key.
是的，政治穩定是關鍵

; 212
Stuart : Except that we've just seen violence on the streets of
Jakarta and some students were killed?
剛發生的街頭暴力和學生喪命又怎麼說？

; 213
Minister : Yes of course but the students were killed, there are some
victims there, but I was told it is not because of the acts of the
security forces because of the clashes between the demonstrators
themselves, those who are against us or pro, the assembly.
當然，的確有學生喪命，出現了一些受害者
但據我所知，那不是保安部隊造成的
因為那是示威者之間衝突造成的
也就反和親國民協商議會示威者衝突造成的

; 214
And interestingly, it has not really affected for instance, the
Rupiah; I have been watching CNBC and the Rupiah is still hovering
within 7 to 8000.
有趣的是，這事件並沒有造成實質影響，也就是印尼盾
我一直在看貴台節目，印尼盾一直盤旋在七千到八千之間

; 215
Martin : Indonesia's Senior Economics Minister, Ginandjar
Kartasasmita, talking to CNBC Asia's correspondent, Stuart Pallister,
earlier.
以上是印尼經濟部長稍早前接受本台記者的訪談

; 216
Well for more on Indonesia, let's go back to Brian Lippey, Managing
Director of Tokai Asia in Hong Kong and talk to him.
為了進一步了解印尼，我們再度回到香港攝影棚
請亞洲東海駐港董事總經理為我們分析

; 217
Brian, it sounds from what Kartasasmita is saying, bank reform there
is taking even longer than what Jakarta would like.
根據印尼經濟部長的講法，印尼銀行的重整
時間上可能比印尼當局希望的還要長

; 218
But it's not just that, we're also hearing that it's privatisation
programme is also going to be delayed.
但情況不儘如此，印尼的民營化計劃也會延後

; 219
Does it worry you, or even surprise you?
您會擔心或者感到意外嗎？

; 220
Brian : It doesn't surprise me.
我不會覺得意外

; 221
I mean when you look at the scope and the magnitude of the problem
there, I mean what is really needed is a comprehensive reform and
restructuring of the banking sector and this simply takes time.
我是指，如果您注意到印尼問題的幅度和深度
我的意思是他們需要一種全面的改革以及重整銀行界
這都是需要時間的

; 222
I mean the work out process has been slow, in many cases politically
influenced and in many areas non-existent.
我是指，他們的處理整度太慢了
政治力量常常介入，很多問題都還沒有被提起

; 223
So this is something that really requires a great deal of time.
所以，這一切都是需要時間的

; 224
At the centre of the issue of course is dealing with the
non-performing loans.
問題的核心當然就是處理壞帳

; 225
Until that is effectively done and until the institutions, the legal
and accounting framework is put in place to deal with them
effectively, this is going to be a long, slow process.
除非有效的處理了壞帳問題
機構、法律和會計基礎建立起來有效的處理這些問題
這是一個漫長和緩慢的進程

; 226
Martin : Okay, one quick last one Brian before we have to take a
break.
好吧，廣告前請教您最後一個問題

; 227
Coming out of the recent assembly, we have hints that Jakarta is
trying to create a new economic policy.
我們覺得雅加達當局有意在這個既將展開的國民協商會議會期裡
提呈新經濟政策

; 228
Broadly that sounds like it's almost based on Malaysia favouring small
and medium sized enterprises, perhaps code words for indigenous
Indonesians.
廣泛而言，它好像以馬來西亞親中小型企業為基調
也許照他們的說法是親”印尼土著”

; 229
Is this Indonesia's version of Malaysia's new economic policy?
這會不會是印尼版的”馬來西亞新經濟政策”？

; 230
Brian : You know it's very interesting, if you look at who have been
most effective during the crisis, the rural and agricultural sectors
have actually done reasonably well.
您也知道這一點很有趣
如果您觀察這一波危機中誰最有效率的話
您會發覺鄉村和農業界表現得最好

; 231
It's been the urban poor and the emerging middle class that's been
hardest hit, so I'm sure there's a political element behind this in
terms of wealth re-distribution.
受打擊最深的是城市貧民和中產階級
從財福分配的角度來看，我相信這一點會是政治影響力

; 232
And of course there's the sensitive issue of the Chinese minority,
both re-attracting the entrepreneurial talent back into the region,
back into Indonesia and the capital flows accompanying that but
balancing that delicately with opportunities for indigenous
Indonesians.
當然，人口佔少數的華人是一個敏感的議題
華人不但能再吸引企業人才回流，同時還能吸引到資金回流
但必須有技巧的平衡印尼土著的機會

; 233
So I think that sounds like what's at the core of the package.
所以，我覺得這就是核心重點

; 234
Martin : Okay, not an easy balance to achieve.
好吧，這不會是一個簡單的任務

; 235
Brian, stay with us, we'll be back with you in just a second.
請您稍候，等會兒再回來請您分析

; 236
Coming up after the break, Hong Kong cuts interest rates plus a
complete wrap up of stock market action around the region, stay with
us.
廣告後我們將報導：
香港調降利率以及完整的亞洲股市走勢，請別走開

; 237
Welcome back, thanks for staying with us on Asia Market Wrap.
歡迎繼續收看”亞洲市場匯報”

; 238
Quickly recapping our Asian stock market action wrap up, let's take a
look at the board now for the numbers.
很快的我們將報導亞洲股市走勢，數據請看畫面

; 239
Tokyo, the Nikkei surging 3%, retail and property stocks leading
winners.
東京日經指數上揚三個百分點
零售和地產股是最大贏家

; 240
In Hong Kong, late profit taking wiping out all of that market's early
gains.
香港方面，晚盤投資人見利拋售，抵銷了稍早前的漲勢

; 241
After the market closed, the Hong Kong Association of Banks cut short
term interest rates 25 basis points, that move though was widely
expected.
香港銀行協會於閉市後公佈調降短期利率一碼，但這一舉措是預料中的事

; 242
Here in Singapore, worse than expected trade numbers for October did
not put much of a damper on the market, in fact the Straits Times
Index managing a 2.5% gain.
新加坡公佈了比一般預期還糟的十月份貿易數據
但並沒有太大的影響到這裡的股市
海峽時報工商指數上漲百分之二點五

; 243
In Kuala Lumpur, the market lifted by news that the country's bad debt
bank, Dana Harta, will issue bonds worth 1 billion Ringgit.
至於吉隆坡，股市受到大馬壞帳公司，也就是國民資產公司
將發行十億零吉公司債消息的鼓舞而上漲

; 244
Further north in Thailand, Bangkok gaining nearly 4%, construction and
bank stocks leading the way up.
往北，泰國曼谷股市上漲了約四個百分點
營建和銀行股漲幅最大

; 245
And in Jakarta, a late burst of energy sending the composite index
there above 400 for the first time in 3 months.
雅加達方面，晚盤能源股暴漲，將綜合指數三個月來首度推高破四百大關

; 246
And in Manila, the 30 share index there jumping 1.25%, to it's highest
in 4 months.
至於馬尼拉，３０指數上漲一點二五個百分點
創下四個月來新高

; 247
Seoul hitting a 7 month high finishing the Friday session nearly 3%
ahead and Taipei rallying to yet another 3 month high, tech stocks
including Acer and ASC, the big movers.
漢城以創下七個月來的新高收盤，上漲了約三個百分點
台北又創下三個月來新高
包括宏碁和華碩在內的科技股是最大推手

; 248
Well Nomura International issues a warning about Hong Kong's property
sector.
野村國際針對香港地產業發出了警告

; 249
The brokerage says the recent recovery in property stocks has been too
fast and does not reflect economic fundamentals.
這家券商表示，近來香港地產的復甦速度太快了
並沒有真正反映經濟基本面

; 250
Nomura estimates that asset values in the property sector will decline
another 25% from current levels.
野村估據，香港地產市值還會從目前的水平下滑兩成五

; 251
Joining us for more is Tony Darwell, he is Head of Property Research
at Nomura International in Hong Kong and is here to talk to us about
just that.
我們從香港請到香港野村國際專員來談這個課題

; 252
Tony, thanks for joining us.
您好，謝謝您採受我們的採訪

; 253
Now it sounds like despite the big rises that we've seen in property
stocks over the last month and half or so, property in Hong Kong you
think, has not come back?
看來儘管香港地產股過去一個月來上揚
但您不認為香港地產已經復甦？

; 254
Tony : Yes, I think what we're seeing is an issue of very over
expectations from the point of view of the level of recovery in the
physical market.
是的，我覺得我們之所以看地產股上揚
那是因為投資人過度預期地產業復甦

; 255
>From our perspective, looking at where interest rates are, looking at
where real interest rates are likely to go, that's going to have a big
implication from the demand side of the equation.
我們認為，根據目前的利率水平和趨勢來看
地產需求面的關聯比較大

; 256
We don't believe the demand is going to return as virulently as it has
in the past.
我們不認為需求面會像過去般強烈

; 257
As a consequence to that, price demand is going to be much more
elastic, as a consequence, expectations are lower and we don't concur
with this sort of reasonable sort in optimism that has hit the market
over the course of the last 2/3 weeks.
因此，價格需求面就會比較有彈性
所以，預期度會降低
我們不同意這種認為市場過去兩、三週來上揚是樂觀的看法

; 258
Martin : Okay, but I mean property stocks have been surging quite a
lot over the last month and a half or so, what are people buying on
then?
好吧，但我指的是過去一個月來地產股已經上揚了不少
投資人憑什麼進場呢？

; 259
Tony : Well I think what's actually happened is, you're seeing demand
returning very much at the thin end of the wedge, expectations are
returning to give you some sort of scenario that we're back to the
races.
我覺得事實上是，需求面是硬擠出來的
預期回升導致您會以為我們已經重回軌道

; 260
The reality from our perspective is that real interest rates are
rising over the course of the first half of next year.
我們認為真相是，明年上半年利率將上揚

; 261
We're expecting inflation to be minus half a percent next year in a
real rising interest rate environment.
我們預期利率上揚時，明年通貨膨脹率將下降半個百分點

; 262
Demand from the speculators is going to be significantly lower and
what you're going to basically see is demand which comes from elastic
price-sensitive end users.
投機客的需求面將大大減小，您將看到出現彈性高、價格敏感住戶的需求面

; 263
As a consequence to that, they're going to be in the market but
they're not going to drive up prices going forward.
因此，他們就會進場，但他們無法飆高地產價格

; 264
Consequently, asset prices next year are not going to rise and in our
view, asset prices are probably likely to decline given the price
sensitive nature of end users, given the issue of affordability which
from our perspective, with household incomes possibly declining next
year, the rally is certainly over-cooked.
所以，明年的資產價格不會上揚
我們認為，資產價格可能會下滑
原因是最終住戶都對價格很敏感，還有購屋能力
我們認為，明年家庭收入可能會下滑
這波漲勢顯然是過頭了

; 265
If you look at the developer stocks, they're basically pricing in a
price rise next year of somewhere between 15-20%.
如果您觀察建商股的話，他們只是預期明年房價會上揚十五至二十個百分點

; 266
Our view is that, that is highly unlikely, the stocks are
significantly over-valued and we would expect them to contract over
the course of the next 3/6 months.
我們認為那是不可能的，股值已經被高度高估了
我們預測未來的三到六個月內股值將會萎縮

; 267
Martin : Okay, we'll keep that in mind then.
好的，我們會緊記在心的

; 268
Tony, thanks for joining us today, nice to talk to you.
謝謝您接受我們的採訪

; 269
Tony Darwell, Nomura International, from our studios in Hong Kong.
以上來賓是香港野村國際專員

; 270
Quickly checking foreign exchange markets.
很快的報導外匯市場

; 271
Hope that Japan will cut it's 5% national sales taxes, lending some
support to the yen.
市場希望日本調降百分之五的消費稅，使得日圓獲得一些支撐

; 272
US Japanese Treasury Secretary, Lawrence Summers, earlier Friday urged
Japanese policy makers to consider a review of that sales tax; the yen
losing a bit of steam though, the yen trading at 120.42.
美國副商務部長桑默斯週五稍早時曾呼籲日本決策者考慮重估消費稅政策
日圓稍稍流失動力，目前的價位是１２０．４２

; 273
For more on the yen's fortunes, let's talk to Brian Lippey again,
Tokai Asia.
為了進一步了解日圓走勢，我們再度請到東海亞洲專員分析

; 274
He's stayed with us in our Hong Kong studios.
他目前從香港攝影棚跟我們連線

; 275
Brian, your view on dollar- yen, where's it headed from here?
您認為美、日圓走勢如何？

; 276
Brian : Well Martin, it's important to say at the outset that the
market since late September/October, has not been trading on
fundamentals but rather on pure flows, flows of money and technical
factors.
自九、十月底以來，匯市就一直沒有根據基本面來交易
而是根據資金純流動性和技術因素來交易

; 277
Just to put it in context, we've had a substantial de-leveraging and
unwinding of short yen positions by hedge funds and other leverage
players.
也就是說，避險基金和槓桿操作者放空短期日圓部位

; 278
We've also seen obviously, a series of rate cuts by the US Federal
Reserve and evidence of a substantially widening US trade deficit.
顯然的，我們也看到美國聯儲局連續調降利率、美國大幅放寬貿易赤字的證據

; 279
So all of those have been dollar negative and have propelled the yen
to it's current levels.
所以，這一切都不利於美元，促使日圓來到目前的水平

; 280
Longer term though, fundamentals ultimately re-assert themselves and
we think that at the end of the day, exchange rates reflect the
relative competitive standing of nation states and while many positive
steps have been taken over the past 6 weeks, Japan still has to deal
with the core problems of restructuring and de- regulation.
但長遠而言，基本面最終會重新佔上檯面
我們認為到頭來，匯率會反映一個國家的相對競爭能力
儘管日本過去六週來採取了不少積極措施
但還是得處理它的重整和放寬管制等核心問題

; 281
So all that spells in our view, a substantially lower yen, going into
next year.
所以，我們認為疲弱日圓將過渡到明年

; 282
We don't believe that there will be a gap or an abrupt move, but
rather a gradual move back toward the 130, 140 region between now and
the beginning of the new Japanese fiscal year in April.
我們不認為會出現障礙或突如其來的走勢
日圓將從現在一至到四月份日本新會計年度期間慢慢的朝１３０回軟

; 283
Martin : Okay, so long term fundamentals are still pro-dollar.
好的，長期基本面展望仍看好美元

; 284
Brian, we will have to wrap up there, nice to talk to you, thanks for
staying with us through this full hour, actually, we'll come back to
you in just a second to talk more, I'm sorry.
我們必須告一段落，謝謝您接受我們的採訪
稍候再回來請您分析

; 285
Up next on Asia Market Wrap, Thailand delays the sale of $10 billion
worth of assets held by defunct finance firms.
廣告後我們將繼續報導：
泰國延緩金額高達一百億倒閉金融公司資產的拍賣會期

; 286
We'll have details on that story when we come back.
廣告後我們會有詳盡的報導

; 287
Welcome back, thanks for staying with us on Asia Market Wrap.
歡迎繼續收看”亞洲市場匯報”

; 288
Well in Europe, major international banks are licking their wounds and
taking stock of the losses they've suffered this year in emerging
markets in Russia, Latin America and also here in Asia.
歐洲主要國際銀行目前還在從今年包括俄羅斯、拉丁美洲和亞洲在內的
新興市場創傷中療傷

; 289
But as CNBC Europe's Chris Burns reports, the future looks brighter
for those banks which have weathered the storm.
但根據本台歐洲記者的報導指出
對於那些經得起風暴的銀行來說，前景似乎是挺樂觀的

; 290
Chris : Half-way through 1998, several of Europe's stock markets were
hitting all- time high's and the Continent's banks seemed to be in
reasonable health but this apparent immunity to the Far East economic
crisis didn't last.
一直到九八年年中以來，歐洲幾個股市連創最高記錄
歐洲大陸的銀行看來也挺健康的
但這種遠東經濟危機免疫能力無法持續

; 291
Coming on top of Asia's economic melt down, Russia's debt default on
August 17th proved too much and soon spread a new nervousness through
Europe's banking boardrooms.
受到亞洲經濟溶毀的影響，俄羅斯率先於八月十七日宣佈無法償債
不但說明了這一點，同時緊張氣氛很快的就蔓延到了歐洲銀行董事室裡

; 292
A look at the Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index of Europe's leading 50
companies compared to the Dow Jones Stoxx Index of Banks, shows that
from mid-August onwards of this year, the banking sector has been
consistently under-performing.
拿道瓊５０指數的歐洲前五十家公司和銀行比較後就會發現
今年八月中以來，銀行業表現得一直不好

; 293
Amongst the high-profile victims, Germany's biggest bank, Deutsche
Bank, saw 24% profit drop for the first 9 months of this year and
there's questions about whether it's push into investment banking is
working.
最顯著的受害者是德國最大銀行，也就是德意志銀行
該銀行今年頭九個月的獲利下滑了二十四個百分點
市場不禁響起它是否能邁向投資銀行的疑問

; 294
ING Barings cut 1200 jobs after warning that profits for the second
half this year are likely to be $815 million below estimates.
ＩＮＧ霸菱警告說今年下半年獲利可能比預估少八億一千五百萬後
就裁了一千兩名員工

; 295
Chairman, Marinaus Minderhood, resigned.
總裁也因此跟著下台

; 296
And Swiss giant, UBS, had to admit to an embarrassing $1.6 billion
loss on emerging markets and the LTCM hedge fund.
瑞士銀行巨人，也就是ＵＢＳ承認在新興市場和ＬＴＣＭ避險基金裡
虧損了十六億

; 297
It cost Chairman, Mathias Cabiolevita his job.
該銀行總裁也因此而下台

; 298
Germany has been one of those hardest hit by the Russian debt default
and there's another factor which is over-shadowing Germany's banks,
the need to restructure in a crowded sector.
德國在俄羅斯無法償債後受打擊最深
德國銀行還被另一個不利因素影響
也就是德國必須重整人滿為患的銀行界

; 299
John Harrison, Deloitte & Touche Consulting; "it's only very small but
there are still about 4,000 banks in Germany, otherwise we might think
there are still mergers, acquisitions and consolidations to come in
the UK."
儘管德國銀行不大，但總數卻高達四千幾家
如果想進軍英國的話，它們就必須合併和盤整

; 300
There's an awful lot more of that pain that's going to have to be gone
through in Germany over the next 5/10 years.
德國銀行未來五到十年內會面臨更多痛楚

; 301
In contrast, the UK has relatively less exposure to the Russian
problem than Germany but there's one feature on the horizon which will
affect all of Europe's banks, the arrival of the Euro.
相較於德國銀行，英國銀行在俄羅斯的放貸投資就沒那麼深
但還是有這麼一個因素足以影響到所有的歐洲銀行
也就是歐元的誕生

; 302
John Harrison; "the most obvious impact will be the loss of revenue
from foreign exchange trading."
最顯著的影響就是匯市交易利潤流失

; 303
By trading, I don't mean dealing on an account but acting on behalf of
customers where the bank will take the spread and also charge a fee,
that will disappear.
我指的倒不是單一戶頭，而是銀行代表客戶時所賺取的匯差和手績費
這些將消失殃盡

; 304
It may have been a boom time for Europe's banks over the past few
years but now they're having to work harder to stay lean and fit.
過去數年來，歐洲銀行業曾出現過榮景
但如今它們必須更努力才能維持下去

; 305
However while the going is tough right now, there is a mood of quiet
optimism that the worst is over and 1999, while it may not be a great
year, is now less likely to be the blood bath once feared.
儘管日子艱辛，但空氣中瀰漫著一股認為最糟已經過去的寧靜樂觀氣氛
雖然一九九九年可能不怎樣，不會出現大家都會怕的局勢

; 306
Chris Burns, CNBC, London.
以上是記者發自倫敦的報導

; 307
Martin : Well back here in Asia, Thailand delays the world's biggest
one day asset sale.
回到亞洲，泰國展延了世界單日最大金額資產拍賣會會期

; 308
Friday, Bangkok extended the deadline for bids for more than $10
billion worth of loans of 56 closed finance firms.
曼谷於週五展延了五十六家倒閉金融公司
金額高達一百億貸款的競標截止日期

; 309
The new date has been pushed back 2 weeks to December 15th, the assets
represent the core loans of the finance firms which were closed at the
peak of Thailand's economic crisis.
新截止日往後延兩週，也就是十二月十五日
資產是泰國經濟危機高峰期被迫關閉的金融公司的放貸


; 310
And now for a look at events on tomorrow's business agenda here in
Asia.
接著，讓我們來看看明天亞洲區有哪些重要的財經活動

; 311
US President, Bill Clinton, pays a 2 day state visit to South Korea
starting Saturday and Chinese President, Jiang Zemin leaves for a
state visit to Russia, Saturday.
美國總統柯林頓將於週六開始官式訪問南韓兩天
中國國家主席江澤民週六將飛往俄羅斯訪問

; 312
Here in Singapore, parliament will consider Monday, various recent
recommendations on wage and other cost cuts.
至於新加坡這裡，國會將於週一討論最近的建議
也就是削減薪資和其它項目

; 313
A slew of economic data out of Hong Kong, including September retail
sales and also October consumer prices.
香港將公佈一系列經濟數據
包括九月份零售物價指數以及十月份的消費者物價指數

; 314
Data out of New Zealand includes August current account numbers and
also 3rd quarter labour costs.
紐西蘭將公佈八月份經常帳數據和第三季勞力成本

; 315
Looking even further ahead, the key numbers, trends and issues moving
financial markets, it's time to go back to Brian Lippey of Tokai Asia.
再往前看，為了進一步了解足以影響到金融市場的重要數據、趨勢和議題
我們再度請到東海亞洲專員為我們分析

; 316
Brian, what's on your radar?
請問，您會注意哪些事？

; 317
Brian : Well it's important to put into perspective what's happened
over the last 2 months, some positive events have developed.
觀察過去兩個月來所發生的事非常重要
因為出現了一些利多因素

; 318
The G7 policy makers have actually wakened up and responded to the
global crisis in a very systematic way.
七大工業組織決策者終於甦醒了
而且還針對全球危機採取了很有系統的措施

; 319
Through rate cuts, they've substantially reduced the possibility of a
sustained global recession next year.
透過調降利率，他們成功的降低了明年全球性經濟衰退的可能性

; 320
In addition, the global easing and monetary conditions should at least
reduce the possibility of a sustained global credit crunch next year,
so that's positive.
再者，全球性貨幣條件放寬至少能降低明年全球性信用緊縮的可能性
所以，這一點挺正面的

; 321
We've seen substantial progress in Japan with a 60 trillion yen bank
capitalisation package and a new fiscal stimulus package and a $41
billion package for Brazil.
我們看到日本積極提出金額高達六十兆日圓銀行資金重組和財政刺激方案
巴西也有金額高達四百一十億的方案

; 322
So all that is quite positive and provides momentum.
所以，這一切都挺正面的，還能提供動力


; 323
I think the key risks however are that individual governments resist
restructuring and the painful steps required to deal with non-problem
loans and that in turn leads to protectionist sentiment and a
so-called back-lash against globalism and the consequent social
pressures and political pressures that can arise from that.
我覺得這裡最關鍵的風險在於個別政府抗拒重整
以及為了處理不良貸款所必須邁出的慘痛步伐
這些因素造就了保護主義情緒抬頭
同時還會導至所謂的抗拒全球化趨勢
這將引發社會和政治壓力

; 324
But overall, some positive developments in the last two months.
但整體而言，過去兩個月來的確出現了好一些正面發展

; 325
Martin : Alright Brian, thanks for talking to us today, we'll have to
wrap up there, thanks for staying with us the full hour
好的，謝謝您接受我們的採訪，我們必須告一段落

; 326
Brian Lippey, Tokai Asia, from our studios in Hong Kong.
以上來賓是香港東海亞洲專員

; 327
And that is it for this edition of Asia Market Wrap.
今天的”亞洲市場匯報”就播報到這裡為止

; 328
Thanks for watching.
謝謝收看