The common consequence effect is a failure of independence.

Let

X={$10^6}
Px={1}

Y={$5x10^6,$10^6,0}
Py={.1,.89,.01}

X'={$10^6,0}
Px'={.11,.89}

Y'={$5x10^6,0}
Py'={.1,.9}

Would you rather choose X or Y? X' or Y'? The answer should be X,X' or Y,Y' according to theory, but people often violate it.


source
jl@crush.caltech.edu index
Marschak_Machina_triangle
common_ratio