Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	good_idea	300		✓	0.614	0.000597	0.385
1	good_idea	300		✗	0	0	0
2	polit_parti	186		✓	0.785	0	0.000796
2	polit_parti	186		✗	0.214	0	0
3	move_forward	14		✓	0.0702	0	0.00378
3	move_forward	14		✗	0.925	0	0.000796
4	world_war_ii	30		✓	0.132	0	0
4	world_war_ii	30		✗	0.868	0	0
5	assembl_line	19		✓	0.0814	0	0.00119
5	assembl_line	19		✗	0.917	0	0
6	back_home	6		✓	0.0374	0	0
6	back_home	6		✗	0.962	0	0.000199
7	gi_bill	13		✓	0.0641	0	0
7	gi_bill	13		✗	0.936	0	0
8	singl_mom	9		✓	0.0452	0	0
8	singl_mom	9		✗	0.955	0	0
9	student_loan	59		✓	0.248	0	0.00318
9	student_loan	59		✗	0.749	0	0
10	collar_worker	21		✓	0.1	0	0
10	collar_worker	21		✗	0.9	0	0
11	america_great	61		✓	0.253	0	0.00597
11	america_great	61		✗	0.741	0	0
12	basic_idea	3		✓	0.0169	0	0.00259
12	basic_idea	3		✗	0.976	0	0.00498
13	hard_work	119		✓	0.461	0	0.0105
13	hard_work	119		✗	0.529	0	0
14	spend_time	66		✓	0.289	0	0.000199
14	spend_time	66		✗	0.711	0	0
15	work_hard	23		✓	0.1	0	0.00557
15	work_hard	23		✗	0.894	0	0.000199
16	decent_wage	11		✓	0.0557	0	0.0211
16	decent_wage	11		✗	0.918	0	0.00557
17	health_insur	29		✓	0.0681	0	0.425
17	health_insur	29		✗	0.482	0	0.0253
18	swim_pool	79		✓	0.901	0.000199	0.00119
18	swim_pool	79		✗	0.0963	0	0.00159
19	vend_machin	29		✓	0.132	0	0
19	vend_machin	29		✗	0.868	0	0
20	big_deal	16		✓	0.0742	0.000199	0.000199
20	big_deal	16		✗	0.925	0	0
21	middl_class	119		✓	0.436	0.000398	0.0812
21	middl_class	119		✗	0.482	0.000199	0
22	state_senat	25		✓	0.181	0	0
22	state_senat	25		✗	0.819	0	0
23	senat_seat	0		✓	0.00478	0	0
23	senat_seat	0		✗	0.995	0	0
24	south_side	3		✓	0.0215	0	0
24	south_side	3		✗	0.979	0	0
25	work_harder	35		✓	0.175	0	0.00179
25	work_harder	35		✗	0.823	0	0
26	health_care	36		✓	0.155	0	0.000597
26	health_care	36		✗	0.844	0	0.000597
27	colleg_tuition	2		✓	0.0155	0	0
27	colleg_tuition	2		✗	0.984	0	0
28	middl_class	29		✓	0.139	0	0.000995
28	middl_class	29		✗	0.86	0	0
29	class_life	0		✓	0.00796	0	0
29	class_life	0		✗	0.992	0	0.000199
30	econom_crisi	95		✓	0.0227	0	0.927
30	econom_crisi	95		✗	0.0503	0	0.000199
31	financi_crisi	4		✓	0.00219	0	0.0237
31	financi_crisi	4		✗	0.0643	0	0.91
32	middl_class	65		✓	0.274	0.000995	0.16
32	middl_class	65		✗	0.0402	0	0.525
33	work_hard	57		✓	0.503	0	0.0573
33	work_hard	57		✗	0.227	0	0.212
34	small_busi	73		✓	0.213	0.0374	0.231
34	small_busi	73		✗	0.36	0	0.16
35	year_earlier	34		✓	0.484	0.000398	0.00458
35	year_earlier	34		✗	0.483	0.00318	0.0247
36	__NUM___year	8		✓	0.0595	0	0.00119
36	__NUM___year	8		✗	0.927	0	0.0121
37	commun_colleg	6		✓	0.0394	0	0
37	commun_colleg	6		✗	0.961	0	0
38	__NUM___year	36		✓	0.152	0	0.00199
38	__NUM___year	36		✗	0.846	0	0
39	commun_colleg	3		✓	0.0195	0	0
39	commun_colleg	3		✗	0.98	0	0.000199
40	creat___NUM__	28		✓	0.0607	0	0.528
40	creat___NUM__	28		✗	0.411	0	0.000199
41	__NUM___million	14		✓	0.0539	0	0.0501
41	__NUM___million	14		✗	0.414	0	0.482
42	past___NUM__	5		✓	0.0237	0	0.0225
42	past___NUM__	5		✗	0.443	0	0.511
43	__NUM___month	0		✓	0.00398	0	0.00378
43	__NUM___month	0		✗	0.462	0	0.53
44	includ___NUM__	2		✓	0.00836	0.0326	0.0143
44	includ___NUM__	2		✗	0.43	0	0.515
45	manufactur_job	2		✓	0.000597	0	0.446
45	manufactur_job	2		✗	0.0312	0.00279	0.519
46	middl_class	53		✓	0.00657	0	0.211
46	middl_class	53		✗	0.000995	0.000398	0.781
47	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00537
47	class_famili	0		✗	0.00597	0.000398	0.988
48	middl_class	8		✓	0.0689	0.000597	0.0247
48	middl_class	8		✗	0.00577	0.000199	0.9
49	tough_time	55		✓	0.835	0	0.0187
49	tough_time	55		✗	0.0565	0	0.09
50	__NUM___year	59		✓	0.259	0	0.0603
50	__NUM___year	59		✗	0.634	0	0.0466
51	unit_state	37		✓	0.209	0	0.0141
51	unit_state	37		✗	0.747	0	0.0302
52	good_answer	69		✓	0.316	0.000199	0
52	good_answer	69		✗	0.683	0	0.000199
53	special_interest	161		✓	0.579	0	0.00279
53	special_interest	161		✗	0.418	0	0
54	basic_idea	26		✓	0.0736	0	0.42
54	basic_idea	26		✗	0.504	0	0.00199
55	tax_cut	11		✓	0.000796	0.00139	0.576
55	tax_cut	11		✗	0.0181	0	0.403
56	tax_break	23		✓	0.000597	0	0.0999
56	tax_break	23		✗	0.000398	0	0.899
57	job_train	19		✓	0.00358	0	0.0633
57	job_train	19		✗	0.000398	0	0.933
58	train_program	0		✓	0.000199	0	0.00358
58	train_program	0		✗	0.00358	0	0.993
59	middl_class	11		✓	0.00358	0	0.0406
59	middl_class	11		✗	0.00239	0	0.953
60	wall_street	35		✓	0.000796	0	0.125
60	wall_street	35		✗	0.000398	0	0.873
61	insur_compani	17		✓	0.000199	0	0.0573
61	insur_compani	17		✗	0.000199	0	0.942
62	protect_consum	12		✓	0	0	0.039
62	protect_consum	12		✗	0	0	0.961
63	credit_card_compani	7		✓	0	0	0.0223
63	credit_card_compani	7		✗	0	0	0.978
64	tax_cut	15		✓	0.000398	0.000398	0.0537
64	tax_cut	15		✗	0	0	0.945
65	web_site	57		✓	0.0205	0	0.177
65	web_site	57		✗	0	0	0.803
66	basic_idea	32		✓	0.119	0	0.0919
66	basic_idea	32		✗	0.0167	0	0.772
67	credit_card	83		✓	0	0	0.364
67	credit_card	83		✗	0	0	0.636
68	tax_cut	2		✓	0	0	0.00876
68	tax_cut	2		✗	0	0	0.991
69	wall_street	17		✓	0.00955	0	0.0555
69	wall_street	17		✗	0	0	0.935
70	auto_industri	176		✓	0.000796	0	0.558
70	auto_industri	176		✗	0	0	0.442
71	__NUM___million_job	11		✓	0	0	0.0428
71	__NUM___million_job	11		✗	0	0	0.957
72	__NUM___job	10		✓	0	0	0.0334
72	__NUM___job	10		✗	0	0	0.967
73	auto_industri	6		✓	0.000398	0	0.0219
73	auto_industri	6		✗	0	0	0.978
74	union_worker	14		✓	0.0161	0.000995	0.0448
74	union_worker	14		✗	0.000398	0	0.938
75	american_worker	68		✓	0.000597	0	0.243
75	american_worker	68		✗	0	0	0.756
76	american_industri	6		✓	0	0	0.0205
76	american_industri	6		✗	0	0	0.98
77	american_worker	32		✓	0.00517	0.00179	0.109
77	american_worker	32		✗	0	0	0.884
78	american_busi	2		✓	0.00418	0	0.00975
78	american_busi	2		✗	0.00517	0.00179	0.979
79	auto_industri	17		✓	0.000199	0	0.0868
79	auto_industri	17		✗	0	0	0.913
80	american_manufactur	14		✓	0	0	0.0434
80	american_manufactur	14		✗	0	0	0.957
81	tax_code	57		✓	0.000199	0	0.177
81	tax_code	57		✗	0	0	0.823
82	tax_break	5		✓	0	0	0.0177
82	tax_break	5		✗	0	0	0.982
83	job_oversea	6		✓	0	0	0.0211
83	job_oversea	6		✗	0	0	0.979
84	tax_break	5		✓	0	0	0.0193
84	tax_break	5		✗	0	0	0.981
85	unit_state	25		✓	0.0931	0.000199	0.0742
85	unit_state	25		✗	0	0	0.832
86	big_busi	67		✓	0.00597	0	0.282
86	big_busi	67		✗	0.00517	0	0.707
87	unit_state	30		✓	0.0722	0	0.0929
87	unit_state	30		✗	0.00796	0	0.827
88	creat_job	36		✓	0.00756	0.000199	0.172
88	creat_job	36		✗	0.0191	0	0.801
89	auto_industri	44		✓	0.0269	0	0.149
89	auto_industri	44		✗	0.0125	0	0.812
90	unit_state	16		✓	0.433	0	0.0257
90	unit_state	16		✗	0.037	0	0.505
91	tax_credit	71		✓	0.65	0	0.00418
91	tax_credit	71		✗	0.327	0	0.0183
92	student_loan	30		✓	0.149	0	0.00338
92	student_loan	30		✗	0.847	0	0.000995
93	__NUM___million	4		✓	0.0203	0	0.00338
93	__NUM___million	4		✗	0.972	0	0.00398
94	commun_colleg	32		✓	0.141	0	0
94	commun_colleg	32		✗	0.859	0	0
95	train_program	44		✓	0.157	0.000199	0.147
95	train_program	44		✗	0.696	0	0
96	__NUM___million	11		✓	0.0977	0	0.00716
96	__NUM___million	11		✗	0.809	0	0.0864
97	commun_colleg	14		✓	0.152	0	0
97	commun_colleg	14		✗	0.847	0	0.000199
98	low_rate	40		✓	0.205	0.000398	0.00617
98	low_rate	40		✗	0.788	0	0
99	averag_famili	30		✓	0.000995	0.000398	0.186
99	averag_famili	30		✗	0.807	0	0.00537
100	tax_cut	27		✓	0.145	0.0111	0.528
100	tax_cut	27		✗	0.147	0.000398	0.168
101	colleg_tuition	19		✓	0.749	0	0
101	colleg_tuition	19		✗	0.25	0	0.000796
102	health_care	69		✓	0.262	0	0.000597
102	health_care	69		✗	0.737	0	0
103	law_pass	1		✓	0.00338	0	0
103	law_pass	1		✗	0.996	0	0.000398
104	oval_offic	47		✓	0.0615	0	0.000199
104	oval_offic	47		✗	0.938	0	0
105	state_level	98		✓	0.0695	0.000597	0.0498
105	state_level	98		✗	0.88	0	0.000199
106	feder_level	3		✓	0.00318	0	0.00259
106	feder_level	3		✗	0.945	0.000398	0.049
107	health_insur	32		✓	0.0517	0	0.000398
107	health_insur	32		✗	0.943	0	0.00478
108	insur_compani	34		✓	0.00657	0	0
108	insur_compani	34		✗	0.993	0	0
109	fine_print	7		✓	0.000398	0	0
109	fine_print	7		✗	1	0	0
110	health_insur	25		✓	0.00119	0	0
110	health_insur	25		✗	0.999	0	0
111	insur_polici	0		✓	0	0	0
111	insur_polici	0		✗	1	0	0
112	__NUM___year	3		✓	0.000597	0	0
112	__NUM___year	3		✗	0.999	0	0
113	prescript_drug	11		✓	0.000597	0	0.000199
113	prescript_drug	11		✗	0.999	0	0
114	health_insur	9		✓	0.000995	0	0.0243
114	health_insur	9		✗	0.975	0	0.000199
115	middl_class	48		✓	0.142	0.00239	0.83
115	middl_class	48		✗	0.00637	0	0.0197
116	class_famili	0		✓	0.00159	0	0.00378
116	class_famili	0		✗	0.146	0.00239	0.847
117	health_insur	47		✓	0.823	0	0.00876
117	health_insur	47		✗	0.117	0	0.0515
118	bui_health	23		✓	0.0617	0	0
118	bui_health	23		✗	0.938	0	0
119	health_insur	0		✓	0.000199	0	0.000199
119	health_insur	0		✗	1	0	0
120	health_care	16		✓	0.0541	0.000398	0.00816
120	health_care	16		✗	0.937	0	0
121	move_forward	74		✓	0.821	0	0.0442
121	move_forward	74		✗	0.133	0	0.000995
122	__NUM___year_ago	8		✓	0.106	0	0.00617
122	__NUM___year_ago	8		✗	0.862	0	0.0259
123	health_care	64		✓	0.257	0.000597	0.0515
123	health_care	64		✗	0.677	0	0.0133
124	bin_laden	81		✓	0.369	0.000199	0.0454
124	bin_laden	81		✗	0.574	0	0.0119
125	unit_state	74		✓	0.341	0	0.0105
125	unit_state	74		✗	0.643	0	0.00458
126	oval_offic	22		✓	0.108	0	0.00179
126	oval_offic	22		✗	0.888	0	0.00219
127	voucher_program	90		✓	0.000398	0	0.996
127	voucher_program	90		✗	0.00159	0	0.00239
128	middl_class	6		✓	0	0	0.0263
128	middl_class	6		✗	0	0	0.974
129	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00259
129	class_famili	0		✗	0	0	0.997
130	cut_spend	11		✓	0.000199	0	0.0348
130	cut_spend	11		✗	0	0	0.965
131	govern_program	35		✓	0.0155	0	0.117
131	govern_program	35		✗	0	0	0.867
132	work_hard	6		✓	0.162	0	0.0203
132	work_hard	6		✗	0.0153	0	0.803
133	bill_clinton	292		✓	0.000398	0	0.824
133	bill_clinton	292		✗	0	0	0.175
134	creat___NUM__	7		✓	0	0	0.0241
134	creat___NUM__	7		✗	0	0	0.976
135	__NUM___million	0		✓	0.000398	0	0.00279
135	__NUM___million	0		✗	0	0	0.997
136	middl_class	32		✓	0.000796	0	0.113
136	middl_class	32		✗	0	0	0.886
137	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00358
137	class_famili	0		✗	0	0	0.996
138	middl_class	8		✓	0.000398	0	0.0281
138	middl_class	8		✗	0	0	0.972
139	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00299
139	class_famili	0		✗	0	0	0.997
140	middl_class	9		✓	0.00318	0	0.0299
140	middl_class	9		✗	0	0	0.967
141	class_famili	0		✓	0.00119	0.000199	0.00259
141	class_famili	0		✗	0.00318	0	0.993
142	fair_share	60		✓	0.75	0	0.0551
142	fair_share	60		✗	0.00318	0	0.192
143	neg_ad	157		✓	0.683	0	0
143	neg_ad	157		✗	0.317	0	0
144	super_pac	4		✓	0.0217	0	0
144	super_pac	4		✗	0.978	0	0
145	__MONEY___million	6		✓	0.031	0	0.00597
145	__MONEY___million	6		✗	0.963	0	0
146	ordinari_american	62		✓	0.26	0.000199	0.00378
146	ordinari_american	62		✗	0.736	0	0
147	singl_dai	124		✓	0.517	0	0.00836
147	singl_dai	124		✗	0.475	0	0
148	phone_call	57		✓	0.248	0	0
148	phone_call	57		✗	0.752	0	0
149	god_bless	29		✓	0.133	0	0
149	god_bless	29		✗	0.867	0	0
150	unit_state	5		✓	0.0293	0	0.00597
150	unit_state	5		✗	0.965	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	3

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation