Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	home_state	112		✓	0.999	0.000597	0.000597
1	home_state	112		✗	0	0	0
2	unit_state	76		✓	0.324	0	0.000199
2	unit_state	76		✗	0.676	0	0
3	state_senat	0		✓	0.00398	0	0
3	state_senat	0		✗	0.996	0	0
4	unit_state	27		✓	0.12	0	0
4	unit_state	27		✗	0.88	0	0
5	state_senat	0		✓	0.00358	0	0
5	state_senat	0		✗	0.996	0	0
6	neg_ad	269		✓	0.788	0	0.000597
6	neg_ad	269		✗	0.212	0	0
7	polit_campaign	187		✓	0.65	0.000199	0.00199
7	polit_campaign	187		✗	0.347	0	0
8	small_town	80		✓	0.341	0	0
8	small_town	80		✗	0.659	0	0
9	big_citi	6		✓	0.0253	0	0
9	big_citi	6		✗	0.975	0	0
10	nativ_american	19		✓	0.081	0	0
10	nativ_american	19		✗	0.919	0	0
11	peopl_live	38		✓	0.163	0	0.00458
11	peopl_live	38		✗	0.832	0	0
12	world_war_ii	25		✓	0.114	0	0
12	world_war_ii	25		✗	0.886	0	0
13	world_war_ii	8		✓	0.0376	0	0
13	world_war_ii	8		✗	0.962	0	0
14	assembl_line	18		✓	0.0826	0	0.00139
14	assembl_line	18		✗	0.916	0	0
15	gi_bill	11		✓	0.0535	0	0
15	gi_bill	11		✗	0.946	0	0
16	singl_mom	28		✓	0.123	0	0
16	singl_mom	28		✗	0.877	0	0
17	same_time	40		✓	0.161	0	0.000398
17	same_time	40		✗	0.838	0	0
18	rural_area	32		✓	0.14	0	0
18	rural_area	32		✗	0.86	0	0
19	small_town	2		✓	0.0157	0	0
19	small_town	2		✗	0.984	0	0
20	collar_job	39		✓	0.176	0	0
20	collar_job	39		✗	0.824	0	0
21	american_idea	97		✓	0.388	0	0.0169
21	american_idea	97		✗	0.595	0	0
22	work_hard	61		✓	0.268	0	0.00637
22	work_hard	61		✗	0.724	0	0.000995
23	hard_work	13		✓	0.0609	0	0.00836
23	hard_work	13		✗	0.924	0	0.00657
24	middl_class	113		✓	0.125	0.00159	0.721
24	middl_class	113		✗	0.146	0	0.00716
25	job_growth	77		✓	0	0	0.46
25	job_growth	77		✗	0	0	0.54
26	middl_class	8		✓	0.00239	0.000199	0.035
26	middl_class	8		✗	0	0	0.962
27	financi_crisi	39		✓	0	0	0.125
27	financi_crisi	39		✗	0	0	0.875
28	econom_crisi	2		✓	0	0	0.0103
28	econom_crisi	2		✗	0	0	0.99
29	great_depress	3		✓	0.00159	0	0.0113
29	great_depress	3		✗	0	0	0.987
30	__NUM___year	21		✓	0.0615	0	0.0617
30	__NUM___year	21		✗	0.00139	0	0.875
31	work_american	31		✓	0.0987	0.00139	0.0961
31	work_american	31		✗	0.048	0	0.756
32	american_dream	12		✓	0.841	0.000199	0.000796
32	american_dream	12		✗	0.138	0	0.0197
33	put_peopl	55		✓	0.248	0	0.0131
33	put_peopl	55		✗	0.736	0	0.00239
34	work_hard	33		✓	0.156	0	0.00338
34	work_hard	33		✗	0.838	0	0.00279
35	hard_work	11		✓	0.0577	0	0.00577
35	hard_work	11		✗	0.933	0	0.00398
36	unit_state	58		✓	0.184	0	0.262
36	unit_state	58		✗	0.548	0	0.00677
37	million_job	44		✓	0.000995	0.00199	0.761
37	million_job	44		✗	0.00856	0	0.227
38	auto_industri	15		✓	0.00517	0	0.0525
38	auto_industri	15		✗	0.00597	0	0.936
39	health_care	8		✓	0.148	0.000597	0.0263
39	health_care	8		✗	0.0109	0	0.814
40	big_idea	42		✓	0.438	0	0.0643
40	big_idea	42		✗	0.129	0	0.368
41	ordinari_peopl	26		✓	0.499	0	0.000398
41	ordinari_peopl	26		✗	0.498	0	0.00219
42	common_sens	4		✓	0.0241	0	0
42	common_sens	4		✗	0.974	0	0.00199
43	__NUM___year	29		✓	0.0868	0	0.31
43	__NUM___year	29		✗	0.601	0	0.00159
44	middl_class	72		✓	0.0322	0.000398	0.67
44	middl_class	72		✗	0.0609	0	0.236
45	tax_cut	21		✓	0	0.000199	0.155
45	tax_cut	21		✗	0.000597	0	0.844
46	protect_consum	10		✓	0	0	0.035
46	protect_consum	10		✗	0	0	0.965
47	insur_compani	4		✓	0.000796	0	0.0167
47	insur_compani	4		✗	0	0	0.982
48	rais_tax	47		✓	0	0.000199	0.167
48	rais_tax	47		✗	0	0	0.832
49	middl_class	2		✓	0	0	0.00995
49	middl_class	2		✗	0	0	0.99
50	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00438
50	class_famili	0		✗	0	0	0.996
51	train_program	3		✓	0.000796	0	0.0155
51	train_program	3		✗	0	0	0.984
52	tax_cut	51		✓	0.000995	0.000398	0.166
52	tax_cut	51		✗	0	0	0.833
53	middl_class	26		✓	0.00378	0	0.0896
53	middl_class	26		✗	0.000398	0	0.906
54	wall_street	8		✓	0.00299	0	0.0289
54	wall_street	8		✗	0.00279	0	0.965
55	middl_class	43		✓	0.034	0	0.141
55	middl_class	43		✗	0.00199	0	0.822
56	work_peopl	22		✓	0.0273	0	0.074
56	work_peopl	22		✗	0.0279	0	0.871
57	cut_tax	44		✓	0	0.0611	0.175
57	cut_tax	44		✗	0	0	0.764
58	middl_class	3		✓	0.000796	0.00179	0.0113
58	middl_class	3		✗	0	0.0609	0.925
59	cut_tax	8		✓	0	0.031	0.0247
59	cut_tax	8		✗	0	0.0627	0.882
60	middl_class	16		✓	0.00697	0.0452	0.0482
60	middl_class	16		✗	0	0.0933	0.806
61	tax_cut	14		✓	0.000199	0.111	0.0364
61	tax_cut	14		✗	0	0.138	0.715
62	make___MONEY__	5		✓	0.000199	0.0621	0.0133
62	make___MONEY__	5		✗	0	0.249	0.676
63	includ___NUM__	12		✓	0.00199	0.583	0.00279
63	includ___NUM__	12		✗	0	0.311	0.102
64	tax_increas	27		✓	0	0.0103	0.0133
64	tax_increas	27		✗	0	0.889	0.0874
65	incom_tax	3		✓	0	0.000199	0.00896
65	incom_tax	3		✗	0	0.89	0.101
66	__NUM___million	9		✓	0.0595	0.000398	0.307
66	__NUM___million	9		✗	0.00398	0.51	0.119
67	tax_hike	49		✓	0.00119	0	0.631
67	tax_hike	49		✗	0.000199	0.00537	0.362
68	tax_cut	19		✓	0	0.000199	0.0681
68	tax_cut	19		✗	0	0.00279	0.929
69	trillion_dollar	17		✓	0	0	0.0627
69	trillion_dollar	17		✗	0	0	0.937
70	tax_cut	2		✓	0	0	0.00975
70	tax_cut	2		✗	0	0	0.99
71	top___NUM___percent	3		✓	0	0	0.00975
71	top___NUM___percent	3		✗	0	0	0.99
72	vote___NUM__	24		✓	0.0165	0	0.0804
72	vote___NUM__	24		✗	0	0	0.903
73	__NUM___time	0		✓	0	0	0.0201
73	__NUM___time	0		✗	0	0	0.98
74	health_care	3		✓	0.00119	0	0.0139
74	health_care	3		✗	0	0	0.985
75	__NUM___time	2		✓	0.000199	0	0.00856
75	__NUM___time	2		✗	0.000398	0	0.991
76	health_care	22		✓	0.0235	0	0.0679
76	health_care	22		✗	0.000398	0	0.908
77	tax_cut	36		✓	0.000597	0.000398	0.141
77	tax_cut	36		✗	0.000398	0	0.857
78	warren_buffett	31		✓	0	0.000199	0.111
78	warren_buffett	31		✗	0	0	0.889
79	tax_cut	13		✓	0.000398	0.000199	0.0422
79	tax_cut	13		✗	0	0	0.957
80	import_thing	11		✓	0.000398	0	0.0376
80	import_thing	11		✗	0.000398	0	0.962
81	top___NUM___percent	13		✓	0	0	0.044
81	top___NUM___percent	13		✗	0	0	0.956
82	tax_break	7		✓	0	0	0.0239
82	tax_break	7		✗	0	0	0.976
83	econom_growth	36		✓	0.00378	0	0.118
83	econom_growth	36		✗	0	0	0.878
84	top___NUM___percent	5		✓	0	0	0.0213
84	top___NUM___percent	5		✗	0	0	0.979
85	tax_break	3		✓	0	0	0.0137
85	tax_break	3		✗	0	0	0.986
86	middl_class	43		✓	0.384	0.000597	0.0915
86	middl_class	43		✗	0.000199	0	0.524
87	work_hard	9		✓	0.195	0	0.0201
87	work_hard	9		✗	0.365	0	0.42
88	singl_dai	2		✓	0.0147	0	0.00816
88	singl_dai	2		✗	0.549	0	0.428
89	tax_cut	13		✓	0.00159	0.00239	0.543
89	tax_cut	13		✗	0.0372	0	0.416
90	auto_industri	47		✓	0.000199	0	0.189
90	auto_industri	47		✗	0.000199	0	0.811
91	million_job	23		✓	0	0	0.0792
91	million_job	23		✗	0	0	0.921
92	american_worker	7		✓	0.000398	0	0.0233
92	american_worker	7		✗	0	0	0.976
93	auto_industri	34		✓	0.000199	0	0.112
93	auto_industri	34		✗	0	0	0.887
94	tax_break	87		✓	0	0	0.282
94	tax_break	87		✗	0	0	0.718
95	job_oversea	5		✓	0	0	0.0219
95	job_oversea	5		✗	0	0	0.978
96	tax_break	6		✓	0	0	0.0185
96	tax_break	6		✗	0	0	0.981
97	american_worker	18		✓	0.000398	0	0.0621
97	american_worker	18		✗	0	0	0.938
98	american_manufactur	5		✓	0	0	0.0191
98	american_manufactur	5		✗	0	0	0.981
99	bin_laden	53		✓	0.201	0	0.129
99	bin_laden	53		✗	0	0	0.67
100	arm_forc	25		✓	0.0599	0	0.0312
100	arm_forc	25		✗	0.169	0	0.74
101	troop_home	23		✓	0.0392	0	0.000398
101	troop_home	23		✗	0.201	0	0.76
102	nation_secur	3		✓	0.00617	0	0.000398
102	nation_secur	3		✗	0.236	0	0.757
103	small_busi	27		✓	0.249	0.0639	0.468
103	small_busi	27		✗	0.168	0	0.0509
104	unit_state	61		✓	0.638	0	0.0157
104	unit_state	61		✗	0.302	0	0.0444
105	rural_commun	24		✓	0.158	0	0.000398
105	rural_commun	24		✗	0.839	0	0.00219
106	barack_obama	41		✓	0.175	0	0
106	barack_obama	41		✗	0.825	0	0
107	tax_credit	57		✓	0.253	0.000199	0.00458
107	tax_credit	57		✗	0.742	0	0
108	young_person	71		✓	0.309	0	0
108	young_person	71		✗	0.691	0	0
109	work_hard	4		✓	0.0211	0	0.000796
109	work_hard	4		✗	0.978	0	0
110	__NUM___million	27		✓	0.116	0	0.00557
110	__NUM___million	27		✗	0.878	0	0.000199
111	commun_colleg	8		✓	0.0488	0	0
111	commun_colleg	8		✗	0.951	0	0
112	__NUM___centuri	15		✓	0.0655	0	0
112	__NUM___centuri	15		✗	0.935	0	0
113	higher_educ	2		✓	0.0151	0	0
113	higher_educ	2		✗	0.985	0	0
114	save___MONEY__	75		✓	0.333	0	0
114	save___MONEY__	75		✗	0.667	0	0
115	health_care_system	89		✓	0.00856	0	0
115	health_care_system	89		✗	0.991	0	0
116	suprem_court	4		✓	0.000199	0	0
116	suprem_court	4		✗	1	0	0
117	health_care	4		✓	0.000398	0	0
117	health_care	4		✗	1	0	0
118	health_insur	13		✓	0.000796	0	0
118	health_insur	13		✗	0.999	0	0
119	insur_compani	26		✓	0.00179	0	0
119	insur_compani	26		✗	0.998	0	0
120	fine_print	7		✓	0.000398	0	0
120	fine_print	7		✗	1	0	0
121	insur_compani	12		✓	0.000597	0	0.00299
121	insur_compani	12		✗	0.996	0	0
122	young_peopl	5		✓	0.0579	0.000199	0.0137
122	young_peopl	5		✗	0.926	0	0.00259
123	__NUM___year	37		✓	0.175	0	0.526
123	__NUM___year	37		✗	0.284	0	0.0147
124	move_forward	12		✓	0.0374	0.000199	0.1
124	move_forward	12		✗	0.356	0	0.506
125	govern_program	45		✓	0.0155	0.000199	0.443
125	govern_program	45		✗	0.0324	0	0.509
126	work_hard	27		✓	0.252	0	0.0734
126	work_hard	27		✗	0.0346	0	0.64
127	economi_grow	62		✓	0.0583	0	0.305
127	economi_grow	62		✗	0.0911	0	0.545
128	bill_clinton	51		✓	0.00159	0	0.29
128	bill_clinton	51		✗	0.00139	0	0.707
129	__NUM___million	6		✓	0.0113	0.000199	0.0217
129	__NUM___million	6		✗	0.00299	0	0.964
130	middl_class	28		✓	0.0446	0.000199	0.0933
130	middl_class	28		✗	0.00995	0.000199	0.852
131	bring_back	52		✓	0.156	0	0.151
131	bring_back	52		✗	0.034	0	0.659
132	job_back	4		✓	0.0456	0	0.0169
132	job_back	4		✗	0.185	0	0.752
133	health_care	3		✓	0.105	0.000199	0.00736
133	health_care	3		✗	0.227	0	0.66
134	work_hard	43		✓	0.689	0	0.00736
134	work_hard	43		✗	0.269	0	0.0352
135	gi_bill	20		✓	0.128	0	0
135	gi_bill	20		✗	0.872	0	0.000199
136	__NUM___month	112		✓	0.441	0	0.00736
136	__NUM___month	112		✗	0.551	0	0
137	neg_ad	9		✓	0.05	0	0
137	neg_ad	9		✗	0.949	0	0.000597
138	same_argument	38		✓	0.112	0	0.335
138	same_argument	38		✗	0.553	0	0.000398
139	econom_theori	8		✓	0.0348	0	0.0293
139	econom_theori	8		✗	0.619	0	0.317
140	put_peopl	79		✓	0.495	0	0.0275
140	put_peopl	79		✗	0.44	0	0.037
141	middl_class	19		✓	0.108	0	0.00915
141	middl_class	19		✗	0.853	0	0.0297
142	american_dream	8		✓	0.0758	0	0.000398
142	american_dream	8		✗	0.923	0	0.000796
143	american_peopl	76		✓	0.316	0	0.00338
143	american_peopl	76		✗	0.68	0	0.000597
144	common_sens	12		✓	0.0603	0	0
144	common_sens	12		✗	0.939	0	0.00119
145	american_famili	157		✓	0.572	0.00179	0.00657
145	american_famili	157		✗	0.42	0	0
146	middl_class	5		✓	0.0291	0	0.00259
146	middl_class	5		✗	0.963	0.000995	0.00418
147	bank_account	8		✓	0.048	0	0
147	bank_account	8		✗	0.951	0	0.000597
148	work_hard	12		✓	0.049	0	0.00219
148	work_hard	12		✗	0.948	0	0.000597
149	main_thing	22		✓	0.102	0.0173	0.0193
149	main_thing	22		✗	0.86	0	0.00179
150	start_work	74		✓	0.354	0	0.000597
150	start_work	74		✗	0.646	0	0.000199
151	special_interest	19		✓	0.0939	0	0
151	special_interest	19		✗	0.906	0	0
152	neg_ad	4		✓	0.0201	0	0
152	neg_ad	4		✗	0.98	0	0
153	singl_dai	52		✓	0.229	0	0.00617
153	singl_dai	52		✗	0.764	0	0
154	phone_call	118		✓	0.469	0	0.000199
154	phone_call	118		✗	0.531	0	0
155	god_bless	34		✓	0.139	0	0
155	god_bless	34		✗	0.861	0	0
156	unit_state	7		✓	0.035	0	0.0115
156	unit_state	7		✗	0.953	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	3

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation