Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	unit_state	97		✓	0.999	0	0.00119
1	unit_state	97		✗	0	0	0
2	state_senat	0		✓	0.00517	0	0
2	state_senat	0		✗	0.995	0	0
3	east_coast	99		✓	0.4	0	0.000199
3	east_coast	99		✗	0.6	0	0
4	peopl_mind	50		✓	0.225	0	0.000597
4	peopl_mind	50		✗	0.775	0	0
5	east_coast	20		✓	0.0925	0	0.000199
5	east_coast	20		✗	0.907	0	0
6	tough_time	77		✓	0.297	0	0.0716
6	tough_time	77		✗	0.631	0	0
7	__NUM___year	50		✓	0.0394	0	0.746
7	__NUM___year	50		✗	0.154	0	0.0611
8	econom_crisi	14		✓	0.000597	0	0.218
8	econom_crisi	14		✗	0.00896	0	0.773
9	great_depress	3		✓	0.000398	0	0.0163
9	great_depress	3		✗	0.00239	0	0.981
10	auto_industri	15		✓	0	0	0.0517
10	auto_industri	15		✗	0.000199	0	0.948
11	foreign_oil	15		✓	0	0	0.036
11	foreign_oil	15		✗	0	0	0.964
12	__NUM___year	7		✓	0	0	0.00557
12	__NUM___year	7		✗	0	0	0.994
13	clean_energi	4		✓	0	0	0.00279
13	clean_energi	4		✗	0	0	0.997
14	energi_product	0		✓	0.000199	0	0.000398
14	energi_product	0		✗	0	0	0.999
15	bin_laden	38		✓	0.872	0	0.116
15	bin_laden	38		✗	0.000199	0	0.0121
16	__NUM___year	8		✓	0.0501	0	0.0123
16	__NUM___year	8		✗	0.828	0	0.109
17	work_harder	63		✓	0.346	0.000199	0.00279
17	work_harder	63		✗	0.649	0	0.00279
18	unit_state	26		✓	0.126	0	0.00975
18	unit_state	26		✗	0.861	0	0.00279
19	middl_class	33		✓	0.132	0.000597	0.0444
19	middl_class	33		✗	0.816	0	0.00677
20	fair_share	39		✓	0.205	0	0.00537
20	fair_share	39		✗	0.781	0	0.00836
21	unit_state	29		✓	0.143	0	0.0109
21	unit_state	29		✗	0.842	0	0.00398
22	__NUM___dai	30		✓	0.131	0	0.0169
22	__NUM___dai	30		✗	0.846	0	0.00677
23	middl_class	83		✓	0.0267	0.000796	0.91
23	middl_class	83		✗	0.0464	0	0.0157
24	free_enterpris	13		✓	0	0	0.11
24	free_enterpris	13		✗	0.00139	0	0.888
25	free_market	2		✓	0	0	0.00159
25	free_market	2		✗	0	0	0.998
26	drive_forc	20		✓	0	0	0.000597
26	drive_forc	20		✗	0	0	0.999
27	econom_growth	3		✓	0.000199	0	0.00139
27	econom_growth	3		✗	0	0	0.998
28	free_enterpris	24		✓	0	0	0.000199
28	free_enterpris	24		✗	0	0	1
29	enterpris_system	0		✓	0	0	0.000199
29	enterpris_system	0		✗	0	0	1
30	health_care	51		✓	0.0561	0	0.787
30	health_care	51		✗	0	0	0.156
31	social_secur	7		✓	0.000199	0	0.177
31	social_secur	7		✗	0.00139	0	0.821
32	market_work	13		✓	0	0	0.0466
32	market_work	13		✗	0	0	0.953
33	protect_consum	21		✓	0	0	0.083
33	protect_consum	21		✗	0	0	0.917
34	credit_card_compani	9		✓	0	0	0.0326
34	credit_card_compani	9		✗	0	0	0.967
35	health_care	31		✓	0.0253	0	0.102
35	health_care	31		✗	0	0	0.872
36	__NUM___year	14		✓	0.00478	0	0.0645
36	__NUM___year	14		✗	0.0103	0	0.92
37	bill_clinton	14		✓	0	0	0.0653
37	bill_clinton	14		✗	0.000199	0	0.935
38	econom_plan	3		✓	0	0	0.0131
38	econom_plan	3		✗	0	0	0.987
39	republican_congress	40		✓	0.000199	0	0.135
39	republican_congress	40		✗	0	0	0.865
40	senat_candid	4		✓	0	0	0.0181
40	senat_candid	4		✗	0	0	0.982
41	mitt_romnei	5		✓	0	0	0.0169
41	mitt_romnei	5		✗	0	0	0.983
42	bill_clinton	3		✓	0	0	0.0153
42	bill_clinton	3		✗	0	0	0.985
43	clinton_plan	0		✓	0	0	0.00279
43	clinton_plan	0		✗	0	0	0.997
44	presid_clinton	31		✓	0.000199	0	0.0991
44	presid_clinton	31		✗	0	0	0.901
45	creat___NUM__	6		✓	0.000199	0	0.0185
45	creat___NUM__	6		✗	0.000199	0	0.981
46	__NUM___million	0		✓	0.000398	0	0.00299
46	__NUM___million	0		✗	0.000199	0	0.996
47	bill_clinton	57		✓	0	0	0.191
47	bill_clinton	57		✗	0	0	0.809
48	left_offic	1		✓	0	0	0.00637
48	left_offic	1		✗	0	0	0.994
49	tax_cut	13		✓	0	0	0.0456
49	tax_cut	13		✗	0	0	0.954
50	insur_compani	12		✓	0	0	0.0398
50	insur_compani	12		✗	0	0	0.96
51	oil_compani	2		✓	0	0	0.00677
51	oil_compani	2		✗	0	0	0.993
52	wall_street	2		✓	0.000597	0	0.0135
52	wall_street	2		✗	0	0	0.986
53	job_growth	21		✓	0	0	0.0738
53	job_growth	21		✗	0	0	0.926
54	econom_crisi	7		✓	0.00478	0	0.0249
54	econom_crisi	7		✗	0	0	0.97
55	pretti_clear	34		✓	0.111	0.00478	0.0882
55	pretti_clear	34		✗	0.00378	0	0.792
56	bad_idea	38		✓	0.0107	0.000199	0.331
56	bad_idea	38		✗	0.0205	0.000199	0.638
57	biggest_bank	56		✓	0	0	0.22
57	biggest_bank	56		✗	0	0	0.78
58	__MONEY___trillion	6		✓	0	0	0.0239
58	__MONEY___trillion	6		✗	0	0	0.976
59	tax_cut	1		✓	0	0	0.00697
59	tax_cut	1		✗	0	0	0.993
60	answer_question	20		✓	0.000796	0	0.0695
60	answer_question	20		✗	0	0	0.93
61	tea_parti	33		✓	0.00159	0.000199	0.119
61	tea_parti	33		✗	0	0	0.879
62	presidenti_race	60		✓	0.188	0	0.161
62	presidenti_race	60		✗	0.000995	0	0.65
63	__NUM___year	41		✓	0.278	0	0.088
63	__NUM___year	41		✗	0.149	0	0.485
64	singl_dai	68		✓	0.602	0	0.0263
64	singl_dai	68		✗	0.302	0	0.0702
65	borrow_monei	219		✓	0.724	0	0.0287
65	borrow_monei	219		✗	0.245	0	0.00219
66	__NUM___year	44		✓	0.2	0	0.00736
66	__NUM___year	44		✗	0.787	0	0.00537
67	scienc_teacher	8		✓	0.0501	0	0
67	scienc_teacher	8		✗	0.95	0	0
68	__NUM___million_american	11		✓	0.0494	0	0
68	__NUM___million_american	11		✗	0.951	0	0
69	commun_colleg	4		✓	0.0213	0	0
69	commun_colleg	4		✗	0.979	0	0
70	creat_job	20		✓	0.0171	0.000597	0.808
70	creat_job	20		✗	0.174	0	0.000398
71	american_worker	39		✓	0.000796	0	0.291
71	american_worker	39		✗	0.00199	0	0.706
72	auto_industri	4		✓	0	0	0.0163
72	auto_industri	4		✗	0.000597	0	0.983
73	nation_secur	50		✓	0.00279	0	0.125
73	nation_secur	50		✗	0	0	0.872
74	wind_turbin	26		✓	0	0	0.00418
74	wind_turbin	26		✗	0	0	0.996
75	solar_panel	2		✓	0	0	0.000199
75	solar_panel	2		✗	0	0	1
76	oil_compani	17		✓	0	0	0.000199
76	oil_compani	17		✗	0	0	1
77	compani_profit	0		✓	0	0	0
77	compani_profit	0		✗	0	0	1
78	tax_break	28		✓	0.000796	0	0.886
78	tax_break	28		✗	0	0	0.113
79	job_oversea	14		✓	0	0	0.124
79	job_oversea	14		✗	0	0	0.876
80	creat_job	25		✓	0.0137	0.000199	0.0896
80	creat_job	25		✗	0	0	0.897
81	put_peopl	96		✓	0.273	0	0.234
81	put_peopl	96		✗	0.00498	0	0.489
82	trillion_dollar	93		✓	0	0	0.51
82	trillion_dollar	93		✗	0	0	0.49
83	spend_cut	4		✓	0.000199	0	0.0155
83	spend_cut	4		✗	0	0	0.984
84	put_peopl	38		✓	0.033	0	0.119
84	put_peopl	38		✗	0	0	0.848
85	tax_rate	20		✓	0	0.000796	0.0999
85	tax_rate	20		✗	0	0	0.899
86	bill_clinton	4		✓	0	0	0.0199
86	bill_clinton	4		✗	0	0	0.98
87	head_start	27		✓	0	0	0.0878
87	head_start	27		✗	0	0	0.912
88	tax_break	6		✓	0	0	0.0213
88	tax_break	6		✗	0	0	0.979
89	tax_cut	25		✓	0.00657	0.00119	0.079
89	tax_cut	25		✗	0	0	0.913
90	american_peopl	87		✓	0.952	0	0.0113
90	american_peopl	87		✗	0.00478	0	0.032
91	special_interest	22		✓	0.132	0	0
91	special_interest	22		✗	0.866	0	0.00199
92	statu_quo	24		✓	0.111	0	0.00876
92	statu_quo	24		✗	0.88	0	0
93	health_care	31		✓	0.127	0.000199	0.0583
93	health_care	31		✗	0.809	0	0.00557
94	wall_street	11		✓	0.0527	0	0.0376
94	wall_street	11		✗	0.851	0	0.0587
95	health_care_plan	36		✓	0.237	0	0
95	health_care_plan	36		✗	0.763	0	0
96	republican_governor	12		✓	0.00458	0	0.000199
96	republican_governor	12		✗	0.995	0	0
97	statu_quo	59		✓	0.924	0	0.0533
97	statu_quo	59		✗	0.0225	0	0
98	year_back	3		✓	0.0197	0	0.00557
98	year_back	3		✗	0.925	0	0.0498
99	common_sens	35		✓	0.18	0	0.00119
99	common_sens	35		✗	0.789	0	0.0302
100	american_peopl	6		✓	0.0322	0	0.0193
100	american_peopl	6		✗	0.918	0	0.0304
101	cut_tax	60		✓	0	0.000796	0.979
101	cut_tax	60		✗	0	0	0.0203
102	middl_class	2		✓	0	0	0.00955
102	middl_class	2		✗	0	0	0.99
103	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00378
103	class_famili	0		✗	0	0	0.996
104	small_busi	2		✓	0	0.000199	0.00876
104	small_busi	2		✗	0	0	0.991
105	republican_senat	18		✓	0.00219	0	0.0599
105	republican_senat	18		✗	0	0.000199	0.938
106	work_hard	62		✓	0.982	0	0.00358
106	work_hard	62		✗	0.00159	0	0.0129
107	american_dream	7		✓	0.0531	0	0
107	american_dream	7		✗	0.946	0	0.00119
108	statu_quo	24		✓	0.0975	0	0.0726
108	statu_quo	24		✗	0.829	0	0.000796
109	financi_aid	41		✓	0.0619	0	0.567
109	financi_aid	41		✗	0.306	0	0.0647
110	plan_parenthood	7		✓	0.00199	0	0.0241
110	plan_parenthood	7		✗	0.361	0	0.613
111	insur_compani	3		✓	0.000199	0	0.0103
111	insur_compani	3		✗	0.363	0	0.626
112	health_care	9		✓	0.0151	0	0.03
112	health_care	9		✗	0.348	0	0.606
113	middl_class	38		✓	0.0462	0.000995	0.397
113	middl_class	38		✗	0.00478	0	0.551
114	class_famili	0		✓	0.000995	0	0.00239
114	class_famili	0		✗	0.0501	0.000995	0.945
115	campaign_trail	94		✓	0.965	0	0.000597
115	campaign_trail	94		✗	0.0334	0	0.000597
116	commun_colleg	13		✓	0.0591	0	0
116	commun_colleg	13		✗	0.941	0	0
117	restaur_owner	20		✓	0.0949	0	0.000199
117	restaur_owner	20		✗	0.905	0	0
118	assembl_line	68		✓	0.285	0	0.00915
118	assembl_line	68		✗	0.706	0	0
119	pledg_allegi	30		✓	0.139	0	0
119	pledg_allegi	30		✗	0.861	0	0
120	small_farm	34		✓	0.151	0	0
120	small_farm	34		✗	0.849	0	0
121	statu_quo	57		✓	0.244	0	0.000796
121	statu_quo	57		✗	0.755	0	0
122	vest_interest	4		✓	0.0231	0	0
122	vest_interest	4		✗	0.977	0	0
123	turn_back	46		✓	0.2	0	0
123	turn_back	46		✗	0.8	0	0
124	push_forward	18		✓	0.0854	0	0
124	push_forward	18		✗	0.915	0	0
125	troop_home	23		✓	0.105	0	0.000199
125	troop_home	23		✗	0.895	0	0
126	middl_class	12		✓	0.0559	0.000398	0.0195
126	middl_class	12		✗	0.924	0	0.000199
127	nativ_american	47		✓	0.206	0	0
127	nativ_american	47		✗	0.794	0	0
128	push_forward	43		✓	0.191	0	0
128	push_forward	43		✗	0.809	0	0
129	phone_call	19		✓	0.0814	0	0
129	phone_call	19		✗	0.919	0	0
130	unit_state	37		✓	0.167	0	0.00159
130	unit_state	37		✗	0.832	0	0
131	god_bless	8		✓	0.047	0	0
131	god_bless	8		✗	0.953	0	0
132	god_bless_america	2		✓	0.0137	0	0
132	god_bless_america	2		✗	0.986	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	6

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation