Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	person_histori	19		✓	0.0903	0.815	0.0945
1	person_histori	19		✗	0	0	0
2	big_fan	158		✓	0	0	0
2	big_fan	158		✗	0.0878	0.817	0.0951
3	year_ago	61		✓	0	0	0
3	year_ago	61		✗	0.106	0.759	0.135
4	good_govern	42		✓	0	0	0
4	good_govern	42		✗	0.113	0.616	0.271
5	low_tax	2		✓	0	0	0
5	low_tax	2		✗	0.09	0.59	0.32
6	privat_individu	11		✓	0	0	0
6	privat_individu	11		✗	0.102	0.317	0.581
7	ronald_reagan	52		✓	0	0	0
7	ronald_reagan	52		✗	0.0567	0.0308	0.912
8	__NUM___year	28		✓	0	0	0
8	__NUM___year	28		✗	0.0432	0.0143	0.942
9	law_school	9		✓	0	0	0
9	law_school	9		✗	0.00378	0.000796	0.995
10	ronald_reagan	39		✓	0	0	0
10	ronald_reagan	39		✗	0.00119	0.000398	0.998
11	white_hous	168		✓	0	0	0
11	white_hous	168		✗	0.000398	0.000199	0.999
12	welfar_reform	38		✓	0	0	0
12	welfar_reform	38		✗	0.000398	0	1
13	good_thing	6		✓	0	0	0
13	good_thing	6		✗	0	0	1
14	north_carolina	185		✓	0	0	0
14	north_carolina	185		✗	0.000398	0	1
15	arnold_schwarzenegg	21		✓	0	0	0
15	arnold_schwarzenegg	21		✗	0.00119	0	0.999
16	good_thing	15		✓	0	0	0
16	good_thing	15		✗	0	0.000199	1
17	john_wayn	119		✓	0	0	0
17	john_wayn	119		✗	0.000199	0.000199	1
18	good_thing	77		✓	0	0	0
18	good_thing	77		✗	0	0.00119	0.999
19	great_power	36		✓	0	0	0
19	great_power	36		✗	0.0121	0.00179	0.986
20	peopl_call	53		✓	0	0	0
20	peopl_call	53		✗	0.0219	0.00995	0.968
21	back_home	68		✓	0	0	0
21	back_home	68		✗	0.0239	0.00816	0.968
22	rais_tax	23		✓	0	0	0
22	rais_tax	23		✗	0.0209	0.0127	0.966
23	lower_tax	51		✓	0	0	0
23	lower_tax	51		✗	0.00139	0.000398	0.998
24	long_time	25		✓	0	0	0
24	long_time	25		✗	0.0245	0	0.976
25	time_ago	0		✓	0	0	0
25	time_ago	0		✗	0.0346	0	0.965
26	good_thing	11		✓	0	0	0
26	good_thing	11		✗	0	0.000597	0.999
27	histori_book	6		✓	0	0	0
27	histori_book	6		✗	0.000597	0	0.999
28	lower_tax	10		✓	0	0	0
28	lower_tax	10		✗	0	0	1
29	ronald_reagan	11		✓	0	0	0
29	ronald_reagan	11		✗	0	0	1
30	lower_tax	1		✓	0	0	0
30	lower_tax	1		✗	0.000199	0.00219	0.998
31	same_thing	11		✓	0	0	0
31	same_thing	11		✗	0.00517	0.231	0.764
32	georg_bush	2		✓	0	0	0
32	georg_bush	2		✗	0.00756	0.247	0.745
33	same_thing	5		✓	0	0	0
33	same_thing	5		✗	0.00478	0.252	0.743
34	good_thing	15		✓	0	0	0
34	good_thing	15		✗	0.00418	0.259	0.737
35	wall_street	15		✓	0	0	0
35	wall_street	15		✗	0.0368	0.253	0.71
36	peopl_pai	49		✓	0	0	0
36	peopl_pai	49		✗	0.0418	0.239	0.719
37	middl_class	62		✓	0	0	0
37	middl_class	62		✗	0.0468	0.222	0.731
38	good_thing	61		✓	0	0	0
38	good_thing	61		✗	0.00577	0.122	0.872
39	free_trade	34		✓	0	0	0
39	free_trade	34		✗	0.00557	0.0364	0.958
40	central_planner	18		✓	0	0	0
40	central_planner	18		✗	0.00557	0.0334	0.961
41	south_america	23		✓	0	0	0
41	south_america	23		✗	0.00677	0.034	0.959
42	trade_barrier	14		✓	0	0	0
42	trade_barrier	14		✗	0.00617	0.0324	0.961
43	good_thing	11		✓	0	0	0
43	good_thing	11		✗	0.00517	0.0312	0.964
44	open_market	39		✓	0	0	0
44	open_market	39		✗	0.00756	0.0287	0.964
45	free_trade	3		✓	0	0	0
45	free_trade	3		✗	0.00935	0.0283	0.962
46	long_time	86		✓	0	0	0
46	long_time	86		✗	0.0973	0.000597	0.902
47	pretti_good	111		✓	0	0	0
47	pretti_good	111		✗	0.159	0.00139	0.839
48	nation_secur	40		✓	0	0	0
48	nation_secur	40		✗	0.341	0.000199	0.659
49	good_peopl	35		✓	0	0	0
49	good_peopl	35		✗	0.412	0	0.588
50	__NUM___month	43		✓	0	0	0
50	__NUM___month	43		✗	0.363	0	0.637
51	polici_issu	34		✓	0	0	0
51	polici_issu	34		✗	0.317	0	0.683
52	civil_servic	23		✓	0	0	0
52	civil_servic	23		✗	0.129	0.000199	0.871
53	comput_system	33		✓	0	0	0
53	comput_system	33		✗	0.109	0.00199	0.889
54	good_idea	59		✓	0	0	0
54	good_idea	59		✗	0.0744	0.00139	0.924
55	welfar_reform	35		✓	0	0	0
55	welfar_reform	35		✗	0.0597	0	0.94
56	feder_govern	24		✓	0	0	0
56	feder_govern	24		✗	0.0394	0.00119	0.959
57	border_secur	28		✓	0	0	0
57	border_secur	28		✗	0.0302	0.000796	0.969
58	immigr_problem	2		✓	0	0	0
58	immigr_problem	2		✗	0.0281	0.000597	0.971
59	larg_part	10		✓	0	0	0
59	larg_part	10		✗	0.0505	0	0.949
60	nation_secur	5		✓	0	0	0
60	nation_secur	5		✗	0.423	0	0.577
61	radic_islam	20		✓	0	0	0
61	radic_islam	20		✗	0.642	0	0.358
62	islam_fundament	0		✓	0	0	0
62	islam_fundament	0		✗	0.68	0.000199	0.32
63	nuclear_technolog	2		✓	0	0	0
63	nuclear_technolog	2		✗	0.556	0.00119	0.442
64	__NUM___countri	7		✓	0	0	0
64	__NUM___countri	7		✗	0.493	0	0.507
65	fissil_materi	2		✓	0	0	0
65	fissil_materi	2		✗	0.481	0.000597	0.519
66	nuclear_weapon	5		✓	0	0	0
66	nuclear_weapon	5		✗	0.467	0.000199	0.533
67	bad_gui	4		✓	0	0	0
67	bad_gui	4		✗	0.273	0.0145	0.713
68	__NUM___million	62		✓	0	0	0
68	__NUM___million	62		✗	0.28	0.0181	0.702
69	million_illeg_alien	0		✓	0	0	0
69	million_illeg_alien	0		✗	0.278	0.0183	0.704
70	__NUM___million	13		✓	0	0	0
70	__NUM___million	13		✗	0.279	0.0185	0.702
71	medic_system	96		✓	0	0	0
71	medic_system	96		✗	0.331	0.0109	0.658
72	young_peopl	73		✓	0	0	0
72	young_peopl	73		✗	0.938	0.000796	0.0611
73	retir_plan	8		✓	0	0	0
73	retir_plan	8		✗	0.964	0.000199	0.0356
74	social_secur	12		✓	0	0	0
74	social_secur	12		✗	0.971	0	0.0295
75	young_peopl	69		✓	0	0	0
75	young_peopl	69		✗	0.94	0	0.0605
76	exact_opposit	130		✓	0	0	0
76	exact_opposit	130		✗	0.79	0	0.21
77	american_peopl	14		✓	0	0	0
77	american_peopl	14		✗	0.656	0	0.344
78	good_peopl	140		✓	0	0	0
78	good_peopl	140		✗	0.654	0	0.346
79	american_peopl	65		✓	0	0	0
79	american_peopl	65		✗	0.652	0.000398	0.348
80	polit_leader	9		✓	0	0	0
80	polit_leader	9		✗	0.649	0.00318	0.348
81	good_peopl	34		✓	0	0	0
81	good_peopl	34		✗	0.65	0	0.35
82	unit_state	24		✓	0	0	0
82	unit_state	24		✗	0.629	0	0.371
83	american_peopl	5		✓	0	0	0
83	american_peopl	5		✗	0.603	0	0.397
84	long_time	44		✓	0	0	0
84	long_time	44		✗	0.583	0.000199	0.417
85	american_peopl	84		✓	0	0	0
85	american_peopl	84		✗	0.589	0.000199	0.411
86	leav_iraq	21		✓	0	0	0
86	leav_iraq	21		✗	0.782	0.000597	0.217
87	front_line	57		✓	0	0	0
87	front_line	57		✗	0.844	0	0.156
88	nuclear_program	91		✓	0	0	0
88	nuclear_program	91		✗	0.866	0	0.134
89	north_korea	115		✓	0	0	0
89	north_korea	115		✗	0.831	0.00119	0.168
90	al_qaeda	15		✓	0	0	0
90	al_qaeda	15		✗	0.989	0	0.0113
91	unit_state	19		✓	0	0	0
91	unit_state	19		✗	0.99	0	0.00955
92	pai_attent	66		✓	0	0	0
92	pai_attent	66		✗	0.992	0	0.00836
93	al_qaeda	15		✓	0	0	0
93	al_qaeda	15		✗	0.992	0	0.00756
94	american_citi	19		✓	0	0	0
94	american_citi	19		✗	0.993	0.000597	0.00597
95	unit_state	196		✓	0	0	0
95	unit_state	196		✗	0.997	0	0.00338
96	great_depress	22		✓	0	0	0
96	great_depress	22		✗	1	0	0.000199
97	civil_war	20		✓	0	0	0
97	civil_war	20		✗	0.999	0	0.000995
98	world_war	3		✓	0	0	0
98	world_war	3		✗	1	0	0
99	power_nation	6		✓	0	0	0
99	power_nation	6		✗	0.996	0	0.00418
100	year_period	21		✓	0	0	0
100	year_period	21		✗	0.961	0.000398	0.039
101	cold_war	9		✓	0	0	0
101	cold_war	9		✗	0.892	0.000199	0.107
102	soviet_union	7		✓	0	0	0
102	soviet_union	7		✗	0.832	0.000398	0.168
103	year_ago	109		✓	0	0	0
103	year_ago	109		✗	0.831	0.00259	0.167
104	thoma_sowel	1		✓	0	0	0
104	thoma_sowel	1		✗	0.905	0.00179	0.0927
105	regular_basi	12		✓	0	0	0
105	regular_basi	12		✗	0.945	0.000995	0.0543
106	franklin_roosevelt	15		✓	0	0	0
106	franklin_roosevelt	15		✗	0.999	0	0.000796
107	winston_churchil	19		✓	0	0	0
107	winston_churchil	19		✗	1	0	0.000199
108	world_war	18		✓	0	0	0
108	world_war	18		✗	1	0	0.000199
109	winston_churchil	17		✓	0	0	0
109	winston_churchil	17		✗	0.999	0.000199	0.00119
110	good_man	15		✓	0	0	0
110	good_man	15		✗	0.738	0.0364	0.226
111	door_open	209		✓	0	0	0
111	door_open	209		✗	0.598	0.0217	0.381
112	young_man	85		✓	0	0	0
112	young_man	85		✗	0.57	0.0117	0.419
113	world_histori	45		✓	0	0	0
113	world_histori	45		✗	0.417	0.000995	0.582
114	__NUM___year	99		✓	0	0	0
114	__NUM___year	99		✗	0.274	0.000597	0.725
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	143

Fred Thompson

Cue-lag representation