Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	unit_state	21		✓	0.828	0	0.172
1	unit_state	21		✗	0	0	0
2	local_level	28		✓	0.106	0.000796	0.037
2	local_level	28		✗	0.725	0	0.131
3	commun_organ	29		✓	0.364	0	0
3	commun_organ	29		✗	0.636	0	0
4	plant_close	18		✓	0.00279	0	0
4	plant_close	18		✗	0.997	0	0
5	feder_polici	51		✓	0.0358	0.0103	0.0494
5	feder_polici	51		✗	0.904	0	0
6	state_polici	10		✓	0.032	0.00139	0.00836
6	state_polici	10		✗	0.903	0.00935	0.0454
7	job_train	50		✓	0.26	0	0.0408
7	job_train	50		✗	0.698	0	0.00139
8	put_peopl	3		✓	0.514	0	0.0376
8	put_peopl	3		✗	0.411	0	0.0372
9	fair_share	45		✓	0.215	0	0.00517
9	fair_share	45		✗	0.773	0	0.00637
10	citi_hall	31		✓	0.119	0.000199	0
10	citi_hall	31		✗	0.88	0	0.000597
11	tough_time	22		✓	0.173	0	0
11	tough_time	22		✗	0.827	0	0
12	small_town	5		✓	0.0211	0	0.000597
12	small_town	5		✗	0.978	0	0
13	big_citi	3		✓	0.0125	0.000199	0.000398
13	big_citi	3		✗	0.986	0	0.000597
14	front_line	24		✓	0.0442	0.000796	0.446
14	front_line	24		✗	0.507	0	0.00179
15	econom_polici	51		✓	0.00139	0	0.625
15	econom_polici	51		✗	0.000995	0	0.373
16	wall_street	4		✓	0.000199	0	0.0127
16	wall_street	4		✗	0.00159	0	0.985
17	main_street	3		✓	0.00139	0	0.00597
17	main_street	3		✗	0.00179	0	0.991
18	white_hous	41		✓	0.695	0.000199	0.0525
18	white_hous	41		✗	0.00279	0	0.249
19	child_left	18		✓	0.192	0.000199	0.00736
19	child_left	18		✗	0.681	0	0.12
20	global_economi	43		✓	0.0748	0	0.0215
20	global_economi	43		✗	0.802	0	0.102
21	white_hous	9		✓	0.137	0	0.0283
21	white_hous	9		✗	0.728	0	0.107
22	comprehens_immigr	15		✓	0.604	0	0.18
22	comprehens_immigr	15		✗	0.196	0	0.0209
23	immigr_reform	0		✓	0.000597	0	0.000597
23	immigr_reform	0		✗	0.798	0	0.2
24	immigr_enforc	11		✓	0.00617	0	0.00139
24	immigr_enforc	11		✗	0.793	0	0.199
25	white_hous	33		✓	0.0655	0.000199	0.536
25	white_hous	33		✗	0.221	0	0.178
26	big_oil	9		✓	0.00119	0	0.112
26	big_oil	9		✗	0.22	0	0.667
27	energi_cost	20		✓	0.0159	0.000796	0.0498
27	energi_cost	20		✗	0.178	0	0.755
28	cut_back	7		✓	0.392	0.000995	0.378
28	cut_back	7		✗	0.186	0	0.0436
29	white_hous	28		✓	0.246	0.000199	0.0434
29	white_hous	28		✗	0.473	0.000199	0.237
30	nation_largest	66		✓	0.376	0.000199	0.00776
30	nation_largest	66		✗	0.581	0	0.0352
31	school_system	1		✓	0.00716	0	0.00279
31	school_system	1		✗	0.955	0.000199	0.0352
32	metropolitan_area	65		✓	0.687	0.000199	0.00856
32	metropolitan_area	65		✗	0.298	0	0.00637
33	citi_hall	3		✓	0.0289	0	0
33	citi_hall	3		✗	0.969	0	0.00199
34	white_hous	5		✓	0.0302	0	0.00179
34	white_hous	5		✗	0.967	0	0.000995
35	senat_mccain	23		✓	0.0185	0.00179	0.00776
35	senat_mccain	23		✗	0.971	0	0.000995
36	true_patriot	3		✓	0.00915	0	0.000398
36	true_patriot	3		✗	0.986	0.00119	0.00338
37	budget_deficit	22		✓	0.0253	0.000398	0.264
37	budget_deficit	22		✗	0.709	0.000398	0.000796
38	__MONEY___trillion	25		✓	0	0	0.765
38	__MONEY___trillion	25		✗	0	0	0.235
39	tax_break	2		✓	0	0	0.0123
39	tax_break	2		✗	0	0	0.988
40	big_corpor	2		✓	0.000995	0	0.0105
40	big_corpor	2		✗	0	0	0.988
41	commun_develop	19		✓	0.998	0	0
41	commun_develop	19		✗	0.00159	0	0.000398
42	block_grant	1		✓	0.000199	0	0
42	block_grant	1		✗	1	0	0.000199
43	metropolitan_area	156		✓	0.77	0.000796	0.0197
43	metropolitan_area	156		✗	0.21	0	0
44	metro_area	31		✓	0.142	0	0
44	metro_area	31		✗	0.858	0	0
45	silicon_vallei	24		✓	0.00836	0	0
45	silicon_vallei	24		✗	0.992	0	0
46	top___NUM__	2		✓	0.000995	0	0
46	top___NUM__	2		✗	0.999	0	0
47	metro_area	1		✓	0.000199	0	0
47	metro_area	1		✗	1	0	0
48	largest_economi	45		✓	0.0123	0	0
48	largest_economi	45		✗	0.988	0	0
49	earlier_era	29		✓	0.00816	0	0
49	earlier_era	29		✗	0.992	0	0
50	metro_area	24		✓	0.00816	0.000199	0.00139
50	metro_area	24		✗	0.99	0	0
51	commun_organ	43		✓	0.964	0	0
51	commun_organ	43		✗	0.036	0	0
52	econom_inequ	12		✓	0.0177	0.000199	0.000597
52	econom_inequ	12		✗	0.981	0	0
53	colleg_student	5		✓	0.04	0	0.000597
53	colleg_student	5		✗	0.959	0	0
54	lo_angel	4		✓	0.00517	0	0.000199
54	lo_angel	4		✗	0.994	0	0.000398
55	privat_busi	36		✓	0.0742	0.000199	0.0255
55	privat_busi	36		✗	0.9	0	0.000199
56	econom_opportun	5		✓	0.034	0.000199	0
56	econom_opportun	5		✗	0.964	0	0.00139
57	commun_develop	14		✓	0.00418	0	0
57	commun_develop	14		✗	0.996	0	0
58	block_grant	1		✓	0	0	0
58	block_grant	1		✗	1	0	0
59	trust_fund	33		✓	0.00338	0	0.748
59	trust_fund	33		✗	0.249	0	0
60	afford_hous	3		✓	0.000199	0	0.0139
60	afford_hous	3		✗	0.24	0	0.745
61	georg_bush	8		✓	0.00139	0	0.233
61	georg_bush	8		✗	0.0159	0	0.749
62	hous_bill	8		✓	0.00438	0.000796	0.039
62	hous_bill	8		✗	0.0123	0	0.943
63	york_citi	148		✓	0.874	0.00637	0.0786
63	york_citi	148		✗	0.00577	0.000199	0.0354
64	white_hous	19		✓	0.122	0	0.0161
64	white_hous	19		✗	0.819	0	0.0428
65	metro_area	97		✓	0.141	0.00159	0.0227
65	metro_area	97		✗	0.814	0	0.0203
66	global_economi	24		✓	0.69	0	0.0494
66	global_economi	24		✗	0.234	0.000199	0.0269
67	same_kind	7		✓	0.234	0.000199	0.0597
67	same_kind	7		✗	0.674	0	0.0316
68	higher_educ	60		✓	0.4	0	0.000796
68	higher_educ	60		✗	0.599	0	0.000597
69	econom_benefit	43		✓	0.128	0.00716	0.157
69	econom_benefit	43		✗	0.706	0	0.00139
70	higher_wage	5		✓	0.0515	0.000398	0.0372
70	higher_wage	5		✗	0.79	0.00537	0.115
71	__MONEY___million	32		✓	0.335	0.081	0.115
71	__MONEY___million	32		✗	0.377	0.00517	0.0862
72	local_govern	10		✓	0.0507	0.0277	0.0197
72	local_govern	10		✗	0.66	0.0844	0.158
73	metro_area	18		✓	0.261	0	0.0161
73	metro_area	18		✗	0.665	0.00318	0.0541
74	__NUM___centuri	32		✓	0.0515	0	0.0326
74	__NUM___centuri	32		✗	0.855	0	0.0613
75	american_societi	56		✓	0.032	0.00239	0.0352
75	american_societi	56		✗	0.849	0	0.0812
76	modern_era	30		✓	0.0283	0.00358	0.486
76	modern_era	30		✗	0.394	0.000597	0.0872
77	trust_fund	9		✓	0.03	0	0.385
77	trust_fund	9		✗	0.0372	0	0.547
78	senat_mccain	18		✓	0.00279	0.000796	0.0318
78	senat_mccain	18		✗	0.0539	0	0.911
79	__MONEY___billion	11		✓	0.000199	0	0.0105
79	__MONEY___billion	11		✗	0.0559	0.000199	0.933
80	trust_fund	7		✓	0.00119	0	0.00756
80	trust_fund	7		✗	0.0559	0	0.935
81	oil_compani	7		✓	0.00239	0	0.0575
81	oil_compani	7		✗	0.0569	0	0.883
82	trust_fund	9		✓	0.000796	0	0.0135
82	trust_fund	9		✗	0.0581	0	0.928
83	senat_mccain	31		✓	0.0173	0.0167	0.119
83	senat_mccain	31		✗	0.0454	0	0.802
84	modern_time	83		✓	0.494	0.0127	0.281
84	modern_time	83		✗	0.0181	0.00338	0.191
85	__MONEY___billion	81		✓	0.00876	0.000995	0.664
85	__MONEY___billion	81		✗	0.00856	0.000597	0.317
86	ten_year	2		✓	0.000398	0	0.0119
86	ten_year	2		✗	0.0161	0.000398	0.971
87	share_prosper	24		✓	0.0398	0.000796	0.17
87	share_prosper	24		✗	0.00935	0	0.78
88	spend___MONEY___billion	94		✓	0.0651	0.000199	0.147
88	spend___MONEY___billion	94		✗	0.0273	0	0.76
89	metro_area	19		✓	0.858	0	0.00139
89	metro_area	19		✗	0.032	0	0.108
90	transit_system	13		✓	0.00378	0	0.00119
90	transit_system	13		✗	0.887	0	0.108
91	feder_dollar	5		✓	0.00139	0	0.00577
91	feder_dollar	5		✗	0.885	0	0.108
92	mass_transit	3		✓	0.00119	0.00577	0.000597
92	mass_transit	3		✗	0.879	0	0.114
93	tax_code	4		✓	0.00259	0.00299	0.0279
93	tax_code	4		✗	0.847	0.00577	0.114
94	mass_transit	19		✓	0.0356	0	0.000796
94	mass_transit	19		✗	0.844	0.00577	0.114
95	metro_area	3		✓	0.00617	0.000199	0.000199
95	metro_area	3		✗	0.879	0.00358	0.111
96	economi_grow	8		✓	0.0456	0	0.944
96	economi_grow	8		✗	0.00458	0.000398	0.00517
97	green_energi	15		✓	0	0	0.108
97	green_energi	15		✗	0	0	0.892
98	energi_technolog	0		✓	0	0	0.00119
98	energi_technolog	0		✗	0	0	0.999
99	energi_effici	9		✓	0	0.000199	0.00338
99	energi_effici	9		✗	0	0	0.996
100	unit_state	47		✓	0.595	0	0.105
100	unit_state	47		✗	0	0	0.3
101	back_america	47		✓	0.296	0.00776	0.0768
101	back_america	47		✗	0.484	0	0.135
102	special_interest	48		✓	0.181	0	0.107
102	special_interest	48		✗	0.595	0	0.117
103	bold_action	26		✓	0.0109	0.000995	0.68
103	bold_action	26		✗	0.202	0	0.105
104	hundr_year	11		✓	0	0	0.245
104	hundr_year	11		✗	0	0	0.755
105	year_ago	0		✓	0.00299	0	0.00179
105	year_ago	0		✗	0	0	0.995
106	thoma_jefferson	4		✓	0.00159	0	0.00458
106	thoma_jefferson	4		✗	0.00299	0	0.991
107	hundr_year	20		✓	0.00557	0	0.00418
107	hundr_year	20		✗	0.00398	0	0.986
108	teddi_roosevelt	5		✓	0.0665	0	0.00657
108	teddi_roosevelt	5		✗	0.00955	0	0.917
109	__NUM___centuri	14		✓	0.183	0	0.00896
109	__NUM___centuri	14		✗	0.0601	0	0.748
110	america_futur	25		✓	0.352	0	0.104
110	america_futur	25		✗	0.194	0	0.351
111	citi_hall	56		✓	0.555	0.000199	0
111	citi_hall	56		✗	0.443	0	0.00179
112	commun_organ	15		✓	0.0267	0	0
112	commun_organ	15		✗	0.973	0	0
113	year_ago	3		✓	0.0257	0	0.00458
113	year_ago	3		✗	0.97	0	0
114	video_game	63		✓	0.659	0.000199	0.000199
114	video_game	63		✗	0.34	0	0
115	good_neighbor	27		✓	0.0523	0.000597	0.00159
115	good_neighbor	27		✗	0.945	0	0
116	motor_citi	157		✓	0.597	0.0127	0.088
116	motor_citi	157		✗	0.301	0.000199	0.000199
117	middl_class	4		✓	0.0975	0.00199	0.074
117	middl_class	4		✗	0.733	0.0103	0.0836
118	__DATE___morn	20		✓	0.0838	0.000995	0.0273
118	__DATE___morn	20		✗	0.773	0.00358	0.112
119	american_citi	57		✓	0.246	0.00478	0.0299
119	american_citi	57		✗	0.635	0.00179	0.083
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	27

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation