Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	__NUM___centuri	8		✓	0.999	0	0.00119
1	__NUM___centuri	8		✗	0	0	0
2	soviet_union	17		✓	0.0651	0	0
2	soviet_union	17		✗	0.935	0	0
3	nuclear_bomb	11		✓	0.0424	0	0
3	nuclear_bomb	11		✗	0.958	0	0
4	al_qaeda	9		✓	0.0342	0	0.0221
4	al_qaeda	9		✗	0.944	0	0
5	nuclear_weapon	2		✓	0.0127	0	0.000597
5	nuclear_weapon	2		✗	0.967	0	0.0193
6	american_citi	7		✓	0.0267	0.000995	0.00796
6	american_citi	7		✗	0.946	0	0.0181
7	al_qaeda	31		✓	0.118	0	0.0119
7	al_qaeda	31		✗	0.854	0	0.0157
8	nuclear_weapon	2		✓	0.0205	0	0.000199
8	nuclear_weapon	2		✗	0.963	0	0.0161
9	rogu_state	12		✓	0.0621	0	0
9	rogu_state	12		✗	0.938	0	0.000398
10	nuclear_arsen	9		✓	0.036	0	0
10	nuclear_arsen	9		✗	0.964	0	0
11	nuclear_weapon	21		✓	0.0774	0	0.000398
11	nuclear_weapon	21		✗	0.922	0	0
12	north_korea	8		✓	0.0318	0	0
12	north_korea	8		✗	0.968	0	0
13	nuclear_energi	20		✓	0.071	0	0
13	nuclear_energi	20		✗	0.929	0	0
14	energi_technolog	0		✓	0.00279	0	0.000199
14	energi_technolog	0		✗	0.997	0	0
15	weapon_program	6		✓	0.0424	0	0
15	weapon_program	6		✗	0.958	0	0
16	close_ti	6		✓	0.0241	0	0.00179
16	close_ti	6		✗	0.974	0	0
17	terrorist_organ	6		✓	0.031	0	0.00498
17	terrorist_organ	6		✗	0.962	0	0.00159
18	al_qaeda	15		✓	0.0691	0	0.00716
18	al_qaeda	15		✗	0.92	0	0.00378
19	kill___NUM__	7		✓	0.038	0	0
19	kill___NUM__	7		✗	0.962	0	0.000199
20	__NUM___million_american	0		✓	0.000398	0	0
20	__NUM___million_american	0		✗	1	0	0
21	includ___NUM__	3		✓	0.000199	0	0
21	includ___NUM__	3		✗	1	0	0
22	__NUM___million	0		✓	0	0	0
22	__NUM___million	0		✗	1	0	0
23	million_children	0		✓	0	0.00299	0.000199
23	million_children	0		✗	0.997	0	0
24	american_foreign_polici	62		✓	0.749	0.000995	0.236
24	american_foreign_polici	62		✗	0.0137	0	0.000199
25	greatest_threat	16		✓	0.0306	0.000796	0.335
25	greatest_threat	16		✗	0.409	0.000398	0.224
26	face_todai	2		✓	0.00856	0.000199	0.0141
26	face_todai	2		✗	0.424	0.000995	0.552
27	global_warm	3		✓	0.554	0.000398	0.000398
27	global_warm	3		✗	0.441	0.000199	0.00338
28	__NUM___centuri	26		✓	0.106	0	0.000796
28	__NUM___centuri	26		✗	0.892	0	0.000796
29	nation_state	75		✓	0.232	0.00557	0.0935
29	nation_state	75		✗	0.668	0	0.000995
30	fossil_fuel	19		✓	0.175	0	0.000597
30	fossil_fuel	19		✗	0.82	0.000199	0.00398
31	recent_year	50		✓	0.234	0	0.000597
31	recent_year	50		✗	0.765	0	0
32	militari_power	3		✓	0.0167	0	0
32	militari_power	3		✗	0.983	0	0.000199
33	nation_secur	55		✓	0.177	0.000199	0.0101
33	nation_secur	55		✗	0.813	0	0.000199
34	small_group	50		✓	0.169	0.00279	0.0127
34	small_group	50		✗	0.813	0.000199	0.00299
35	nuclear_bomb	15		✓	0.0784	0	0
35	nuclear_bomb	15		✗	0.921	0	0.000199
36	nation_secur	61		✓	0.2	0	0.0165
36	nation_secur	61		✗	0.783	0	0
37	unit_state	4		✓	0.0181	0.000398	0.00736
37	unit_state	4		✗	0.958	0	0.0157
38	moral_imper	6		✓	0.0207	0.119	0.0223
38	moral_imper	6		✗	0.816	0.00299	0.0197
39	atom_bomb	5		✓	0.0476	0	0.0243
39	atom_bomb	5		✗	0.795	0.0925	0.041
40	world_war_ii	24		✓	0.157	0.000796	0.0517
40	world_war_ii	24		✗	0.712	0.0269	0.0513
41	cold_war	4		✓	0.138	0.000398	0.000597
41	cold_war	4		✗	0.842	0.00637	0.0127
42	human_life	13		✓	0.0482	0	0.00438
42	human_life	13		✗	0.933	0.00299	0.0119
43	presid_clinton	87		✓	0.36	0.000199	0.0408
43	presid_clinton	87		✗	0.596	0	0.00378
44	nuclear_weapon	16		✓	0.0816	0	0.00179
44	nuclear_weapon	16		✗	0.901	0	0.0159
45	nuclear_arsen	34		✓	0.131	0	0.000398
45	nuclear_arsen	34		✗	0.868	0	0.000199
46	arm_race	31		✓	0.103	0	0
46	arm_race	31		✗	0.897	0	0
47	mass_destruct	8		✓	0.0326	0	0.00239
47	mass_destruct	8		✗	0.965	0	0
48	unit_state	30		✓	0.109	0	0.00756
48	unit_state	30		✗	0.882	0	0.00139
49	terrorist_group	61		✓	0.194	0	0.0318
49	terrorist_group	61		✗	0.77	0	0.00458
50	nuclear_weapon	9		✓	0.0563	0	0.000398
50	nuclear_weapon	9		✗	0.931	0	0.0119
51	nuclear_fuel	16		✓	0.0579	0	0
51	nuclear_fuel	16		✗	0.941	0	0.000796
52	assist_secretari	13		✓	0.0434	0	0.0416
52	assist_secretari	13		✗	0.914	0	0.000796
53	good_thing	31		✓	0.151	0.000398	0.000597
53	good_thing	31		✗	0.846	0	0.00139
54	bush_administr	38		✓	0.126	0.000597	0.00159
54	bush_administr	38		✗	0.872	0.000199	0.000199
55	good_thing	4		✓	0.0179	0	0
55	good_thing	4		✗	0.981	0.000398	0.000398
56	presid_clinton	32		✓	0.112	0	0.0109
56	presid_clinton	32		✗	0.877	0	0
57	__MONEY___million	16		✓	0.0631	0	0.000398
57	__MONEY___million	16		✗	0.935	0	0.00119
58	fissil_materi	24		✓	0.0894	0	0
58	fissil_materi	24		✗	0.911	0	0
59	black_market	9		✓	0.0287	0	0.000199
59	black_market	9		✗	0.971	0	0
60	__MONEY___million	29		✓	0.0953	0	0
60	__MONEY___million	29		✗	0.904	0	0.000199
61	work_close	11		✓	0.0416	0	0.000199
61	work_close	11		✗	0.958	0	0
62	__NUM___ton	17		✓	0.0531	0	0
62	__NUM___ton	17		✗	0.947	0	0
63	bush_administr	12		✓	0.0458	0.000199	0.00139
63	bush_administr	12		✗	0.953	0	0
64	__MONEY___million	17		✓	0.0609	0	0.000199
64	__MONEY___million	17		✗	0.939	0	0
65	__NUM___ton	2		✓	0.0105	0	0.000199
65	__NUM___ton	2		✗	0.989	0	0
66	nuclear_weapon	53		✓	0.131	0	0.271
66	nuclear_weapon	53		✗	0.597	0	0.000796
67	protect_america	23		✓	0.0231	0.00279	0.436
67	protect_america	23		✗	0.282	0	0.257
68	bush_administr	14		✓	0.0245	0.000796	0.0446
68	bush_administr	14		✗	0.27	0.00259	0.657
69	spend___MONEY___billion	53		✓	0.0352	0.000796	0.244
69	spend___MONEY___billion	53		✗	0.113	0.000796	0.606
70	nation_secur	25		✓	0.372	0.000199	0.0314
70	nation_secur	25		✗	0.133	0	0.463
71	fy___NUM__	26		✓	0.13	0.00597	0.037
71	fy___NUM__	26		✗	0.451	0.000199	0.376
72	recent_year	57		✓	0.538	0	0.00119
72	recent_year	57		✗	0.454	0	0.00637
73	nuclear_weapon	8		✓	0.0382	0	0.000199
73	nuclear_weapon	8		✗	0.959	0	0.00219
74	cold_war	39		✓	0.137	0	0.000597
74	cold_war	39		✗	0.862	0	0
75	nuclear_weapon	30		✓	0.0991	0	0.0273
75	nuclear_weapon	30		✗	0.873	0	0.000199
76	groceri_store	47		✓	0.141	0.00219	0.132
76	groceri_store	47		✗	0.701	0	0.0235
77	al_qaeda	30		✓	0.105	0	0.0744
77	al_qaeda	30		✗	0.695	0	0.126
78	nuclear_arsen	49		✓	0.328	0	0.000995
78	nuclear_arsen	49		✗	0.667	0	0.00398
79	hard_work	101		✓	0.334	0	0.00219
79	hard_work	101		✗	0.663	0	0
80	good_thing	28		✓	0.0999	0.000199	0.000597
80	good_thing	28		✗	0.899	0	0
81	nuclear_weapon	39		✓	0.139	0	0.00239
81	nuclear_weapon	39		✗	0.859	0	0
82	unit_state	10		✓	0.0406	0	0.000597
82	unit_state	10		✗	0.958	0	0.000597
83	nuclear_weapon	19		✓	0.0722	0	0.000796
83	nuclear_weapon	19		✗	0.927	0	0.000398
84	nuclear_energi	24		✓	0.0888	0	0
84	nuclear_energi	24		✗	0.911	0	0
85	materi_world	18		✓	0.0651	0.00239	0.0119
85	materi_world	18		✗	0.921	0	0
86	nuclear_weapon	42		✓	0.185	0	0.00358
86	nuclear_weapon	42		✗	0.809	0	0.00239
87	nuclear_arsen	30		✓	0.107	0	0
87	nuclear_arsen	30		✗	0.893	0	0
88	fissil_materi	19		✓	0.0681	0	0
88	fissil_materi	19		✗	0.932	0	0
89	nuclear_energi	7		✓	0.0273	0	0
89	nuclear_energi	7		✗	0.973	0	0
90	nuclear_weapon	9		✓	0.0277	0	0.000597
90	nuclear_weapon	9		✗	0.972	0	0
91	north_korea	18		✓	0.0643	0	0.000199
91	north_korea	18		✗	0.936	0	0
92	nuclear_weapon	30		✓	0.103	0	0.00139
92	nuclear_weapon	30		✗	0.896	0	0
93	north_korea	19		✓	0.0693	0	0
93	north_korea	19		✗	0.931	0	0
94	nuclear_weapon	14		✓	0.0521	0	0.00179
94	nuclear_weapon	14		✗	0.946	0	0
95	north_korean	27		✓	0.0943	0	0.000199
95	north_korean	27		✗	0.905	0	0
96	step_back	10		✓	0.0342	0	0.000199
96	step_back	10		✗	0.965	0	0.000398
97	nuclear_weapon	54		✓	0.186	0	0.00179
97	nuclear_weapon	54		✗	0.812	0	0
98	north_korea	20		✓	0.0724	0	0
98	north_korea	20		✗	0.928	0	0
99	secur_council	30		✓	0.103	0	0
99	secur_council	30		✗	0.897	0	0
100	north_korean	31		✓	0.106	0	0.000199
100	north_korean	31		✗	0.894	0	0
101	great_power	15		✓	0.0486	0	0.000199
101	great_power	15		✗	0.951	0	0.000199
102	recent_year	46		✓	0.158	0	0
102	recent_year	46		✗	0.842	0	0
103	north_korea	7		✓	0.0283	0	0
103	north_korea	7		✗	0.972	0	0
104	nuclear_fuel	26		✓	0.0931	0	0
104	nuclear_fuel	26		✗	0.907	0	0
105	stop_make	68		✓	0.201	0.00438	0.0509
105	stop_make	68		✗	0.743	0	0
106	prolifer_treati	15		✓	0.0955	0	0.00856
106	prolifer_treati	15		✗	0.864	0.000199	0.0318
107	nuclear_weapon	8		✓	0.0382	0	0.00318
107	nuclear_weapon	8		✗	0.928	0	0.0306
108	term_goal	43		✓	0.144	0.00279	0.0261
108	term_goal	43		✗	0.805	0	0.0227
109	nuclear_weapon	21		✓	0.134	0	0.00517
109	nuclear_weapon	21		✗	0.848	0	0.0129
110	nuclear_arsen	42		✓	0.162	0	0.000398
110	nuclear_arsen	42		✗	0.837	0	0.000597
111	nuclear_power	39		✓	0.134	0	0.000398
111	nuclear_power	39		✗	0.866	0	0
112	nuclear_fuel	19		✓	0.0718	0	0
112	nuclear_fuel	19		✗	0.928	0	0
113	unit_state	14		✓	0.0496	0	0.000796
113	unit_state	14		✗	0.95	0	0
114	good_polici	15		✓	0.0563	0.000199	0.00318
114	good_polici	15		✗	0.94	0	0.000398
115	__NUM___ton	50		✓	0.184	0	0.000199
115	__NUM___ton	50		✗	0.816	0	0
116	__NUM___nation	11		✓	0.0388	0	0.00557
116	__NUM___nation	11		✗	0.955	0	0.000199
117	nuclear_weapon	11		✓	0.048	0	0.00279
117	nuclear_weapon	11		✗	0.945	0	0.00398
118	__NUM___countri	12		✓	0.0511	0.000199	0.00458
118	__NUM___countri	12		✗	0.938	0	0.00577
119	__NUM___ton	35		✓	0.14	0	0.000199
119	__NUM___ton	35		✗	0.86	0	0.000199
120	spent_fuel	5		✓	0.0189	0	0
120	spent_fuel	5		✗	0.981	0	0
121	__NUM___ton	36		✓	0.133	0	0.000199
121	__NUM___ton	36		✗	0.867	0	0
122	intern_secur	83		✓	0.255	0	0.00398
122	intern_secur	83		✗	0.741	0	0
123	fissil_materi	19		✓	0.0687	0	0
123	fissil_materi	19		✗	0.931	0	0
124	nuclear_energi	27		✓	0.0921	0	0.000199
124	nuclear_energi	27		✗	0.908	0	0
125	inher_danger	2		✓	0.00975	0.000398	0.000597
125	inher_danger	2		✗	0.989	0	0.000199
126	weapon_program	9		✓	0.046	0	0
126	weapon_program	9		✗	0.954	0	0
127	fissil_materi	18		✓	0.0621	0	0
127	fissil_materi	18		✗	0.938	0	0
128	nuclear_weapon	4		✓	0.0167	0	0.000398
128	nuclear_weapon	4		✗	0.983	0	0
129	nuclear_fuel	17		✓	0.0685	0	0
129	nuclear_fuel	17		✗	0.932	0	0
130	spent_fuel	10		✓	0.039	0	0
130	spent_fuel	10		✗	0.961	0	0
131	nuclear_weapon	26		✓	0.0905	0	0.00398
131	nuclear_weapon	26		✗	0.905	0	0
132	vest_interest	27		✓	0.105	0.000199	0.00776
132	vest_interest	27		✗	0.884	0	0.00259
133	nation_pride	18		✓	0.0742	0	0.000199
133	nation_pride	18		✗	0.925	0	0.000796
134	unit_state	25		✓	0.0981	0	0.000199
134	unit_state	25		✗	0.902	0	0
135	state_govern	0		✓	0.00358	0	0
135	state_govern	0		✗	0.996	0	0
136	american_leader	21		✓	0.00876	0	0.00617
136	american_leader	21		✗	0.985	0	0
137	nuclear_technolog	45		✓	0.866	0.0119	0.0693
137	nuclear_technolog	45		✗	0.0503	0	0.00259
138	turn_back	7		✓	0.03	0.00358	0.0141
138	turn_back	7		✗	0.873	0.0115	0.0677
139	biolog_weapon	28		✓	0.126	0.0115	0.0125
139	biolog_weapon	28		✗	0.775	0.0149	0.0601
140	cold_war	3		✓	0.0295	0	0
140	cold_war	3		✗	0.88	0.0245	0.0657
141	move_forward	49		✓	0.137	0.0183	0.15
141	move_forward	49		✗	0.645	0.0211	0.0285
142	act_decis	28		✓	0.0736	0.0169	0.0846
142	act_decis	28		✗	0.632	0.0376	0.155
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	54

Bill Richardson

Cue-lag representation