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a Static Warren Demonstration
The
WARREN system, named for famed American investor and author
Warren Buffet, is an application of the RETSINA
multi-agent architecture to the problem of financial portfolio
management. A multi-agent system approach is ideal in cases
that require the coordination of several component tasks
across distributed and flexible networks of information
sources and expertise. Whereas a centralized system is susceptible
to sytem-wide failures and processing bottlenecks, multi-agent
systems are more reliable, especially given the likelihood
of individual component failures.
The
great advantage of a multi-agent approach is that if one
or more agents fail, the system will continue to function
reliably. An unresponsive agent is not a problem if agents
are designed with redundant capabilities and/or appropriate
interagent coordination mechanisms. In instances of component
failure, the agent system is designed to reroute tasks to
other agents. Task agents may also seek out replacements
for unresponsive or failed agents on the network.
The
WARREN system builds on current investment practices to
deploy a number of different, semi-autonomous software agents.
These heterogeneous agents acquire information from and
monitor changes to stock reporting databases, interpret
stock information, predict the near future of an investment,
and track and filter relevant financial news articles. The
WARREN system is designed to monitor the ongoing portfolio
management process, and thus to function under conditions
of extreme uncertainty.
The
WARREN agents are derived from the set of reusable software
component agents that comprise the RETSINA
agent system. This architecture coordinates three kinds
of agents: interface, task, and information agents. As the
user interfaces graphically and textually with the portfolio
manager agent, other agents coordinate tasks, acquire
information, and send results, recommendations, and analyses
to the user via the interface agent. See the image below
for a representation of how these three kinds of agents
interact to enable efficient and effective portfolio management:
The
interface agent or portfolio manager interacts primarily
with the human user as shown in the uppermost part of the
diagram, while the set of analysis or task agents coordinate,
decompose, and delegate tasks received from the interface
agent or from other task agents. Information agents monitor
stock and other financial sources. Data culled from the
infosphere and stored locally by information agents are
sent to one or more task agents upon request, and, following
a process of data analysis and integration at the task agent
level, are ultimately displayed to the user via the interface
agent.
The
user's portfolio manager displays a comprehensive summary
of the user's portfolio. The interface also allows the user
to buy and sell stocks and to request the preparation of
a Financial Data Summary or fundamental analysis of the
user's stock holdings. The other display available to the
user is a price/news graph that dynamically integrates intra-day
trading prices and news stories about a stock.
Sub-project:
Text Miner
Robotics
Institute Project Page
For
more information on the WARREN system, see the following
publications:
